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MatPiscatella's Posts

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Thread Post-Google and Apple gaming service announcements, do you still think Sony/MS/Nintendo are in trouble?
No. Except PC gaming, which has been doomed since 1995.
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
Great for margins... but if it is line priced at a similar level to One S then what's the point. Most interested to see if it gets distribution at retail. B&M is selling an absolute metric ishton of digital value game cards so they should embrace it for console, acc and game card sales but who knows. These things aren't always rational.
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Thread PCVR Game Discussion Thread - A New Era of Gaming
Right. My point was on hardware. Software is a bit barren now because that sw dev money can be better utilized in other areas. I mean, there is so much tech investment in ridiculous areas that this stuff is just one more. I just don't see how it can be justified outside of chasing sunk costs or some pie-in-the-sky it's all going to work out faith based modeling. Which, hey, if million and billionaires want to do that I'm all for it. The immersive gaming VR market isn't getting to 25m+ households anytime soon. And maybe it doesnt have to. Whatever.
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Thread PCVR Game Discussion Thread - A New Era of Gaming
I hear you. Okay, so option 3 from the choices that I put in the tweet then. That's cool. Glad to see there are still passionate believers in it.
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Thread PCVR Game Discussion Thread - A New Era of Gaming
Not just looking at sales data (which has been and remains not great). Also looking at player engagement data we collect via 5k sample size survey, and even looking at peripheral numbers like Google Trends. Interest peaked in early 2017 and continues to fall off, despite innovations and lower priced headsets entering the market. Maybe those things you mention will move the needle. Guessing none of those are going to make gaming VR a mass market success. Doesn't mean it can't find a nice niche in the market. Just a whole lot of money still being dumped into gaming VR and I can't figure out why. That money could fund a whole assortment of gaming products that have a higher likelihood of ROI.Consistency is key. Means my analysis has been on the right track for some time.
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Thread MLB The Show 19 Countdown to Launch Giveaways - Free Codes for US/CA PSN for Theme/Card Packs/Stubs
Thanks for posting! I'll gladly take 10 packs to get a whole bunch of 40 rated relief pitchers! Woop!
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
Based on my math, incremental sales gains from base price cuts won't offset the cost of the cuts themselves this year. But lots can change. Better plan is to continue with hi/lo promotional pricing and value add bundles.
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
HW sales continue to be strong at current pricing levels. If any price cuts happen it will not be because data suggest they are needed.
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(19075469)

Thread Ichiro Suzuki, one of baseball's all-time greats, walks off the field for the last time
Dude is a legend. I wonder if he's going to continue with his ridiculous workout routine and how he's going to keep on living without constantly preparing for baseball.
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
Game pass isn't a sales panacea that will make everything sell better. It's something that allows for more conversation and player touchpoints, which drive virality. The folks that are on game pass are going to be more invested in gaming, and those are the people friends and family listen to when picking games to buy. Game pass seems to amplify the sentiment of the experience people have with the participating games. Data suggest SoT and SoD2 sales have benefitted from being on game pass because of these reasons. And these same reasons appear to have potentially negatively impacted CD3. It's the double edged sword of banking on virality and power of influence.
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
This is great stuff.
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
Y'all are the wrong people to ask what a weebo is lol
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
So Jump Force seems to have people shook. Why. And what's a weeb.
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
It doesn't do this at all.
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
Might need to read that line again.
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Thread NPD February 2019: Anthem #1, Jump Force #2, Far Cry #4, Metro #8. Switch #1 Hardware
"Gamepads" are the classification terminology for non joystick/wheel controllers. For Switch it includes the Pro Controller and Joy-Cons, etc.
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Thread Patrick Klepek: "Writing about VR is a giant waste of time" (in terms of website business)
This doesn’t surprise me in the least given total market performance.
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Thread Patrick Klepek: "Writing about VR is a giant waste of time" (in terms of website business)
Nah.Right, it’s the play pattern that’s the challenge here. There will be industries and uses for VR that will absolutely be significant and potentially life changing or life saving. Gaming? Niche of a niche. Much more optimistic for AR from a gaming perspective but we’re still nowhere close to that happening.
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Thread February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th
Game Card sales at retail continue to break records, while sales of Accessories such as Headsets and Gamepads are also at record levels. Things are changing, but still lots of money to be made at retail. If the reports are true, retailers could just select to not carry those SKUs, but run the risk of alienating customers that come in to pick one up. Each retailer will approach this differently of course, but the market is what it is.
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Thread February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th
But the billionaires got more, so that's good right
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Thread February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th
I never had kids so I could buy all the video games instead. Probably a terrible mistake. Well, not the not having kids part. Still very happy with that choice.
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Thread February 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 12th
The tax return situation in the US is an absolute mess this year and it should have a negative impact on both Feb and Mar imo.
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Thread Destination PlayStation, an event for retail and third party publishers, was held this week
Retailers and publishers pay to attend. Sony just hosts and manages it. The cost difference between DPS and E3 is laughably large, it's absurd to compare the events in any way. DPS saves pubs and retailers lots of money and time by having everyone together for annual planning.
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Thread Destination PlayStation, an event for retail and third party publishers, was held this week
Ugh.
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Thread Destination PlayStation, an event for retail and third party publishers, was held this week
Over the years I attended, anything new would be behind closed doors.
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Thread Destination PlayStation, an event for retail and third party publishers, was held this week
They always show everything that has been announced at DPS regardless of pending release date. DPS is retailers bouncing from publisher casita to publisher casita, a couple dinners and everyone ends up eating at least once at both the steakhouse and the Mexican place at the resort. I did start a rad bocce ball tourney after the concert one year. That was fun.
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Thread Destination PlayStation, an event for retail and third party publishers, was held this week
The stage show the first day is just a hype show. They show the same videos and games that are already public. Everything about unannounced games is done in the casitas or meeting rooms, not in the theater show on day 1.
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Thread Destination PlayStation, an event for retail and third party publishers, was held this week
Sometimes studio folk attend if a game will be presented behind closed doors. Overwhelming majority is business people doing business people things. It's a great event, but in a way inside baseball kind of way.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Ahhh, now I got it. Thanks.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Snyder can you translate this for me please
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Or could it go even higher?
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Maybe it's... just... that... good. Tune back in March 19th to find out!
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
"which likely impacted the Xbox One ranking chart"
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
It'll be meaningful every month in the 1H, we'll have to see how it goes. Big comps to meet for sure.
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Thread January 2019 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 12th
Keep in mind average selling price for both PS4 and Xbox One increased in '18 vs '17.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Well, that's not a platform exclusive then. That would be cheating.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Smash should get there in the not distant future. Odyssey has a shot as well, will probably get there eventually.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Gotta jet... will check in later tonight for other questions. Cheers y'all.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Good question... KH3 is the second biggest launch month for a Square Enix game in history following FFXV.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
KH3, RE3 and AC7 all significantly exceeded prior versions or set franchise best launch months. How well each did was surprising. Also surprising were the declines across accessories & game cards and non-Switch hardware. Likely going to be a very tough 1H for these comps to offset the Fortnite effect in 2019.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
Unfortunately, data agreements don't let me speak publicly to platform splits.
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Thread NPD January 2019: KH3, RE2 and NSMBUD top the charts, Switch best selling console
I have 15 minutes before I gotta jet to a thing... anyone have quick questions?
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Thread Manny Machado has agreed to a 10-year, $300 million deal with the Padres
I'm stoked. Any team could have signed Machado or Harper. All of them have plenty of money. Glad the Pads figured it out. He makes the team better, shocker. All these hot takes about how the Padres will still suck on Twitter... like how the f else does a team get better besides getting better players? I paid lots of money to watch hot trash play 3B last year and it blew. Now I'll pay lots of money and maybe see a guy get some hits and play solid d. How is this anything but better for Padre customers.
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Thread Cate Archer is the best female character no one knows about. And I wish they brought her back.
Tried. Hopefully someday.
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Thread Anyone else notice an almost industry wide shift in the pricing and sales of games in physical and digital stores in the last year?
More data drives more reliable findings. Companies are getting smart at picking the right discounts at the right times to maximize returns based on analysis of the growing sample size of historical promotions they've been doing. It's not a conspiracy or magic. It's just math.
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Thread Ubisoft: PC pre-orders for The Division 2 are higher than the original (6X rise on uPlay)
People are a little too hung up on sales, and aren't properly gauging how important margin is for the big pubs. Most would gladly sacrifice some sales to get to higher margins. The bigger pubs can make these moves, because content is king and if the game is good enough and/or big enough, the vast majority of people will download another client. For the smaller titles, getting through the Steam algorithm seems to be the biggest pain point, and other storefronts may offer some relief and get them much needed exposure.
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Thread Ubisoft: PC pre-orders for The Division 2 are higher than the original (6X rise on uPlay)
What my tweet states is that games are "seeing better results and higher margins." Emphasis on margins. I didn't say that leaving Steam causes higher pre-orders. There are an unquantifiable number of factors that influence consumer behavior and cause pre-orders (which never are on a normalized sales trajectory) to do what they do. Only point is that it's another example of a company being pleased with the results they've seen so far by moving away from Steam to other storefronts and strategies. No idea if it continues or to what scale.
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Thread NPD/EEDAR: Over 50% of Switch owners own a PS4; Over 40% own an Xbox One (USA)
Point is that it's not a zero sum market.
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Thread NPD/EEDAR: Over 50% of Switch owners own a PS4; Over 40% own an Xbox One (USA)
Some of y'all really like to stretch to find things to argue about.
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Thread Nintendo FY3/2019 Q3 Earnings - Switch HW 14.49m, full year forecast reduced to 17m from 20m.
Yeah, Fortnite was an everything seller, especially in 1H. Even made me raise my annual forecast for full year around E3 which I probably shouldn't have. Shrug.
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Thread Do Any of You Want to Work in the Games Industry?
This thread has been fascinating.If you want to make games in the ‘bigger industry’ you need to make some games.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
I appreciated it once I realized what was happening.
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Thread A Reminder: Publishers Can Generate Steam Keys For FREE And Sell Them Anywhere They Please (0% cut)
This seems like we're moving into Step 3: Bargaining.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
What?
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Of course. Still track Genesis, Game Gear and everything else. Tracking goes back to Jan 95.Never.I can do one Monday.More cautiously optimistic.No prob.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
SpongeBob Kreature from the Krusty Krab has been selling steadily for, like, ever. Very small units, but still. Every month it keeps happening. So surprisingly consistent for a long time.
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Thread Call Of Duty : The #1 Best Selling Console Video Game Franchise in the US for 10 years in a row
Eh, I thought not having a campaign would have a significant impact. Was wrong. Oops.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
What the hell is this. We've chatted for years. I've got no problem with it, I think it's great. So take a step back. Just wish instead of the drama the convo would focus on what the topic of the thread is. So sue me.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
This is like a soap opera with none of the fun bits. Anyways, to get back on track with more sales chat and less drama, best-sellers for PlayStation Vita:
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Thread Call Of Duty : The #1 Best Selling Console Video Game Franchise in the US for 10 years in a row
If you're downplaying the size of Call of Duty as a franchise, well, you shouldn't. On an average annual basis Call of Duty is simply on another tier. Here that point is from the Dec release:
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Yeah that was wild and a lot of fun. Great questions too. He wasn't kidding either, DMd me asking me for my number and then like 5 seconds later my phone rang.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Thanks. Being right on this predictions and $5 can get me a Chalupa Supreme Cravings Box at Taco Bell. So I have that going for me, which is nice.
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Thread NPD HW Predictions for 2019 (entire year) - Closes Saturday, February 2
I've seen this thought more than a couple times the last few days and I just don't get it.
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Thread NPD HW Predictions for 2019 (entire year) - Closes Saturday, February 2
Depending on one's assumptions. But yeah, I'm projecting a stronger rev drop than unit drop. But that's just me. I'm wrong a lot.
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Thread NPD HW Predictions for 2019 (entire year) - Closes Saturday, February 2
Why don't you have my job. I've got (intentionally not coded correctly): Sw 6.7m PS 4.7m Xo 3.8m I also have 2019 as peak Switch. I have overall HW units falling 4%. Guess I'm a bit more optimistic on PS4/Xone sustaining.
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Thread NPD HW Predictions for 2019 (entire year) - Closes Saturday, February 2
Eh, I'm thinking both PS4/Xone go more aggressive with price promotion Dec 2019 than they did Dec 2018. One thing to keep in mind, average pricing was flat or higher for HW when compared to 2017. 2018 units do not reflect 'normal' cyclical pricing.
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Thread NPD HW Predictions for 2019 (entire year) - Closes Saturday, February 2
Like I posted above, I think average pricing starts to come down, goosing units a bit. Pricing has been abnormally strong when looking at historical benchmarks.
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Thread MLB Hall of Fame Class of 2019 announced. Mariano Rivera the first unanimous selection in the history of the HOF
Buddy Biancalana was ace in the '85 World Series. Put him in the hall.
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Thread Switch Surpasses 10.5 Million Units in U.S. - Launch aligned sales are 22% higher than PS4 and 34% higher than XB1
Sales of Nintendo games and hardware have no significant impact to non Nintendo games and hardware. Nintendo directly competes with other games companies like Netflix, other activities or sleeping does.
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Thread Switch Surpasses 10.5 Million Units in U.S. - Launch aligned sales are 22% higher than PS4 and 34% higher than XB1
Could be. Retailers can see detail on individual purchases in terms of shopping cart I certainly can't. Point is that when NIN sales go up there's no corresponding consistent declines elsewhere. Myth of the zero sum market.
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Thread Switch Surpasses 10.5 Million Units in U.S. - Launch aligned sales are 22% higher than PS4 and 34% higher than XB1
Full thread with all the results is here if you're into that kind of thing.
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Thread MLB Hall of Fame Class of 2019 announced. Mariano Rivera the first unanimous selection in the history of the HOF
And when you look at his wins... him being inducted is a travesty!!!!! C'mon man.
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Thread Switch Surpasses 10.5 Million Units in U.S. - Launch aligned sales are 22% higher than PS4 and 34% higher than XB1
Heh.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Physical revs are down, but just slightly, single-digit %. Tack on any reasonable digital assumption, and flat to modest growth seems likely.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Dollar sales of software in a hardware hard bundle are allocated to the hardware.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
It depends.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
4DKTF
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
No. RDR2/COD are on a tier of their own.I'm doing a best selling VR required list later, but VR sales in the quarter didnt really break away from previous trajectory.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Good question. No, no exceptions are made for the monthly releases. Either a publisher is in the panel and participating or they're not. The Games Market Dynamics report we do quarterly does include digital spending from all publishers and all platforms, including mobile. In addition, the data in the upcoming press release from the ESA on total market spending, for example, comes from us and includes all Video Game spend, regardless of DLP participation.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
No it does not. DM me your work email addy and we can discuss further.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Mobile and Console are far more synergistic than cannibalistic. It can only be proven so many times in the data.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Yep. The Earth will be swallowed by the sun, we'll all have self driving cars and maybe someday we'll get Half-Life 3. On a long enough timeline, just about anything is plausible.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Do I have to have a take?
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Eh I don't. They launched it and i thought it would be really promoted to go after folks looking for STEM related stuff, especially at holiday, and it just never materialized in a big way. It's a great idea, not sure about the whys and hows of what's happened since launch.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
From a sales perspective, given everything happening in the market, gens just dont mean what they used to. The real kicker will be if streaming meaningfully gains momentum. There are in market consoles and not in market consoles. Or something.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Doing it tomorrow. Got busy today between this and the ESA press release.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Yeah, it's SKU rank.
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Thread December 2018 NPD Results: Switch highest selling console of 2018 by units and revenue, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate top selling game of December
Yeah... and the software numbers just being physical are... well... phew.You've GOT TO be kidding me. Haaaaaaahahahhahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahah
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Taylor Townsend was secretly the best character on the show.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
More drama than that telenovela I'm trying to get into.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Massively important point. Things could get real ugly(er) real quick for consumer spending if tax returns are held up.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
I LOVED the OC. Califorrrrrniaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, CALIFORRRRRRRRRRNIAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Sharing publishers get to see both physical and digital breakdowns of whatever categories they share. Physical only subscribers do not see any digital info at all. But digital coverage currently only includes PlayStation, Xbox and Steam platforms.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
That issue is pretty overblown in some circles.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
There are buyers, assistant buyers, inventory planners, sales planners, merchandising specialists, etc etc. all employed to make those decisions at each retailer. Publishers also have people dedicated to the same things to assist.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
The only Simpsons meme consistently applicable to Video Game sales is Disco Stu.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
No. Even I do not have permission to see that detail.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Fair. Erm. Just don't worry about it. Everything will happen tomorrow and then it'll be over and it'll all be okay. Just... just go play a video game or something.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Oh, is it doom-thirty again? Don't y'all EVER get tired of it?1
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
The public release is still on track for tomorrow after market closes. Just be normal.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
I was referring to retailer reporting to the mfg/publisher. A mfg gets all of the sales and inventory data of its own products directly from retailers, but it does not get information on competitor products directly from retailers.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Uncertain. Also not certain if it will be Monday or Tuesday.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
To your first question, a company may have a good idea of its ranking, but when talking about the US market it would be very odd to come out and say that product x sold more than competitor product y without the NPD data. I don't understand your second question.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Every mfg does get precise sales and inventory information on its own products from retailer partners, but do not receive this information on competitive products. What a mfg decides to include or not include in any PR statement is a considered choice. But a mfg's internal data on sales of its own products are as accurate as it gets and should tie or come very close to what NPD reports. But they do wait for us to make statements on competitors. Sure, most project for competitors during a month, but this is often done projecting from a sample and reported results can sometimes differ.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Systems differ. Some retailers report weekly, some daily, some hourly, all depends.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
I'm confused by your questions. Each mfg and publisher does internal tracking of its own products via data supplied directly by each retailer for sales and inventories, sometimes on a daily basis if they so choose. Each mfg and publisher can also internally project for competitors, but results are not always accurate. Mfgs and publishers will wait for NPD reporting before making statements on competitors, or how its own products rank in a time period, as NPD data is considered data of record for the market. And of course subscribers get detailed unit, revenue and pricing data on every item ever manufactured on a monthly basis from NPD for those categories they subscribe to.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Yes. I mean, knock on wood and all that.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
What's weird is that not once has anyone asked me if there was a delay.
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(17026782)

Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Well, there's egg on my face then. Yeah, physical was delayed due to a processing error. No delay is anticipated to the media release scheduled for Tuesday.
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(17004294)

Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
NPD covers digital for Sony, MS and Steam platforms for members of the DLP across the entirety of the Americas. Physical tracking is done in MEX, US and CAN.
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(17004570)

Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Not sure, I'll have to go look.Cool. This will save me a lot of work in the media release.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
I want pizzaaaaa... p i z z a... gimmie pizzaaaaaaah
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Why can't you people just be normal once in a while.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
I ain't got no time for shenanigans and tomfoolery anymore.
Published

(16930847)

Thread What is a POSITIVE controversial game opinion you hold?
- The Witcher 3's combat system is multi-layered and nuanced, which in turn makes it one of the most enjoyable systems in gaming for those that are willing to learn its intricacies. - Mass Effect 3's original ending was just fine and never should have been changed - Dragon Age 2 has wonderful characters and story-telling making it my favorite DA game, and it's not particularly close
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(16905016)

Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Jan 22 is the Media Release including all the charts (trying to extend to top 20, and also do 2018 charts by plat, not sure I can yet). Jan 23 will be my 2018 predictions report card Jan 25 I'll have my more detailed 2019 predictions All week I'll be highlighting 2018 best-sellers across genres and categories and doing more best-sellers lists on twitter.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
I'll do a "PSVR Required" Software chart. Still digging into the data to see if there's a story to tell on PSVR HW sales. I'm still very bearish on immersive gaming VR. It might find a sustainable niche, but I don't think we're there yet, and I'm not too confident I see a high likelihood path to get there. Shrug.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
But what is the greatest lunch in video game history.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Wow at that FFXV food. And Sushi Striker HAS to be a contender. Does Kirby qualify or no because he eats everything.
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(16893014)

Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
No. Well, maybe. Although would rather make it something about Tom Nook, even if he isn't in the game, if Smash does indeed end up #1.
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(16839917)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Hand waving the issues away is one way to go. So is sticking one's head in the sand.
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Thread GfK Chart-Track: UK Yearly Market Data (2018)
If it's anything like the US market that line should correlate very nicely to the number of games being released physically. Now, that of course opens the question on why fewer games are being released physically.
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(16811295)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Next work stoppage should align with the Pads bringing back the brown and having the young talent start producing. Going to be quite the bummer. Cant blame the players though, the current system does not distribute revs fairly.
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(16812393)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Plenty - fix the service time issue - raise league minimum salary - raise luxury tax cap - eliminate loopholes in revenue reporting And or course the one issue that really needs solving is minor league pay, but the union doesnt care and Congress just approved below minimum wage levels of pay because everyone is terrible.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Always thought it'd be pretty close. I didn't expect all 3 to be as strong as they ended up being. Xbox One in particular really over performed my expectations. Funny thing is I do a publisher and retailer tour between Feb and April that takes me everywhere and I'll have to fess up on how I downballed all 3 platforms this year, no matter who ends as the years market leader.
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Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
Well, if true, that and $5 can get me a KFC lunch box so I have that going for me, which is nice.
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(16773887)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Few reasons: 1) Secretive nature of the industry makes assumption estimates difficult. Pricing, availability, timing of bundles, software slates, etc are all fairly unpredictable. 2) We only have monthly data to work with on the physical side, which makes things harder. 3) Consumer reaction to offerings are unpredictable, and assigning quantitative corollary attributes to the offerings themselves is extremely challenging. Basically, we don't know a lot about what's coming, when it's coming, what it'll be priced at, or whether consumers will care.
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(16768003)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Who is doing that. I'm not seeing any of that. Only thing I'm seeing is people being far too optimistic given cyclicality, slate and next gen announcements.
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(16769817)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
My hardware forecasts are generally pretty good, get less error than most analysts. However, range of error on any video game related forecast is always higher than compared to other industries. And I probably have some recency bias as well as potentially swinging too far towards optimism after my forecast in both 2017 and 2018 for PS4 ended up being too conservative. As with any VG forecast, as long as you end up in the ballpark it's pretty good. But, sure, my current outlook could be too optimistic. Numbers are hard.
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(16769100)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
I lean optimistic on hardware these days given what we've been seeing. Downside case could result in declines of 25%, give or take. But I don't think that's super likely.
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(16766803)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
It's an algebra problem and most of the variables in the equation are unknown.
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Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Why $100? Why not $1. They may lose money on every unit, but they can make up for that in volume.
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(16768895)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug. I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.
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(16706677)

Thread The Division 2 Is Ditching Steam For The Epic Games Store On PC [See Threadmarks]
Can't wait to see the reactions once the PC marketplace goes streaming in a big way.
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(16650294)

Thread December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
[NSW] Wins [PS4] Wins [XB1] Wins Just getting a head start on the sarcastic comments to the release.
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(16643545)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Never was confident in it. Still think RDR2 finishes #1 and Switch #1 hardware. But who knows. I'll still sleep fine if I'm wrong.
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(16643810)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
If only the Vita had a Zelda game then it would have been fine. Can't believe they dropped the ball on that.
Published

(16599161)

Thread People that brought the Surface Go, still liking it?
I have one and it's great. Way above my expectations. Just running Office and Web stuff on it, so certainly not putting it under any heavy loads, but it's been a dream and better to travel with than even my old Surface Pro. Did have to buy a new USBc hdmi adapter as the Go does not the old surface port or standard USB. But yeah, great device.
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(16599479)

Thread People that brought the Surface Go, still liking it?
Can also run in desktop mode if you wish, although I've been using tablet mode, which is weird.Oh. Cheers for the explanation.
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(16606287)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
The hot stove is so cold I put my otter pops in it and now I got frozen otter pops. Boring and delicious.
Published

(16514096)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
They generally aren't good before they get to SD... Yates, Hand, Stammen, Heath Bell even... lots of guys over the years.
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(16514633)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Right. Just seems that the Padres have some special sauce for relievers (despite numerous coaching changes over the years) or some serious cluster luck.
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(16513898)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Is it something in the tacos? We get these guys off the trash heap, they become good, then they go away to other teams and end up going to the trash heap again. It's... it's weird.
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(16506335)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Agreed. If anything, it would generate more interest and potentially more subscribers.
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(16507960)

Thread Nintendo Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console of 2019, According to Analysts
Yeah, I'm only authorized to speak to the US.
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(16507387)

Thread Nintendo Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console of 2019, According to Analysts
I made a similar prediction. We'll know if I was right on Jan 22nd.
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(16487683)

Thread Nintendo Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console of 2019, According to Analysts
Would *have* predicted.. And yes, some did.That's true as well though.
Published

(16483727)

Thread Nintendo Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console of 2019, According to Analysts
Who are "they," exactly?
Published

(16473545)

Thread In arguably the worst video game prediction of all time, Pachter predicts The Elder Scrolls 6 to launch in 2019.
Ehhh, I'd say that I'm probably wrong, and that predicting things in video games is really, really hard and a fun but ultimately somewhat silly thing to do. But it gets people talking and thinking about the future, which is a good time.
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(16472822)

Thread In arguably the worst video game prediction of all time, Pachter predicts The Elder Scrolls 6 to launch in 2019.
I thought some of the other predictions in that article were pretty compelling.
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(16458395)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
"Early NPD report" when the actual NPD analyst hasn't seen any data for the month... Talorswiftyeahokay.gifTalorswiftyeahokay.gif
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(16458740)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
I dont get the wig thing. Explain it to me like I'm an old.I don't know, but it's exhausting.
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(16458489)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Correct.What does that even mean. I have hair and I dont want anyone else's rug.
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(16446894)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
I know that I exclusively look to Disgaea titles to explain the changes to production and distribution costs across the entire industry. It's the only franchise that really covers everything happening in gaming.
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(16432781)

Thread So why doesn't NPD release any actual figures while the Japanese trackers do?
So that's your name on here... hola. Yep, $2 trillionish tracked, video games is less than $40 billion. Minuscule amount in the grand scheme of covered industries. Most people here only know the video game side though. Shrug.
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(16428041)

Thread So why doesn't NPD release any actual figures while the Japanese trackers do?
I misunderstood the question. My bad.
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(16427365)

Thread So why doesn't NPD release any actual figures while the Japanese trackers do?
Your premise is flawed. And no.
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(16426454)

Thread So why doesn't NPD release any actual figures while the Japanese trackers do?
I've no problem with expressing my take on anything the company does, nor does the company limit me from doing so. The question was asked, I explained why it is the way it is, would be happy to clarify more if someone has an actual question beyond spicy hot one liners.
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(16423289)

Thread So why doesn't NPD release any actual figures while the Japanese trackers do?
Ah. You're talking about publisher or retailer PR. Gotcha. Yeah, can't speak to the motivations of others. Would be great PR for us to have more info out there (which is why so much was released back in the day).
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(16422831)

Thread So why doesn't NPD release any actual figures while the Japanese trackers do?
It was a shame. We do give what we can to Zhuge every month for the thread, and I'm here (although this type of outreach is nowhere in my JD) so those of us on the games business actually do care about this stuff. Because not releasing detailed data points is more effective for PR than having business news publications, cable news and websites slapping the logo everywhere while using NPD data to highlight the biggest trends???
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(16422329)

Thread So why doesn't NPD release any actual figures while the Japanese trackers do?
Amazing how all of this is incorrect. The reports back in the day had full volumes for hw and sw because the data agreements with publishers and retailers allowed them. Those agreements no longer allow these things. There are plenty of competitors that publish a lot of stuff. Difference is NPD tracks actual point of sale data, while others publish based on survey and extrapolation. Because what we track is data from publishers and retailers, we must have agreements in place in order to utilize that data. If publishers and retailers do not wish that data to be public, well it is their data. Other regions or territories may have different views on this issue. If it were up to me, more data would be made available. But it's not, so it isn't.
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Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
My commentary around release count has always been about physical software and how it impacts retail.
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(16422957)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
The eShop is drowning in games, and it's likely only going to get more challenging as more games keep coming to it once it starts pulling away from the pack in 2019.
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(16408152)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Taking some time off from this nonsense is good for people. Enjoy it while it lasts.
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(16375343)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Nice to see some people realizing that unit sales are not the only goal a company can have and that they are not the only metric worth watching.
Published

(16369432)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Machado could be the second coming of Reggie. Well, without any of the charisma of Reggie.
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(16324973)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
3DS being as strong as it has been this year is a Pokemon fueled miracle in itself.
Published

(16323624)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Read the Padres are also in on Realmuto? Like, why though. Just, for once, hold on to the Robbie Alomars and Trey Turners. Always building great farm systems then wasting it.
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(16228419)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
But angry people on the internet tell me in YouTube comments to my monthly summary that my prediction that Switch will lead the market in 2018 is "spreading lies and propaganda"
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(16190097)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Dodger fans on Twitter are idiots not realizing that all this means Harper is going to be in LA soon.
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(16182228)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
The two weeks around Christmas have been bigger than BF week for some years now, but everyone tends to focus on BF weekend. This year we have an extra Saturday. The calendar worked against the market last year, this year is a whole different story.
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(16182525)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
It shouldn't. The impact of Cyber Monday on gaming is way overblown to begin with imo.
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(16163640)

Thread Mat Piscatella: Over the first three months in market, Marvel's Spider-Man is now the fastest selling superhero game in US history
Overwatch is not included in the superhero game comp set. This is a "is a hot dog a sandwich" kind of question.
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(16163727)

Thread Mat Piscatella: Over the first three months in market, Marvel's Spider-Man is now the fastest selling superhero game in US history
But a taco is a sandwich
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(16163464)

Thread Mat Piscatella: Over the first three months in market, Marvel's Spider-Man is now the fastest selling superhero game in US history
Superhero games are games... with superheroes.
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(16148497)

Thread Xbox Games with Gold January - Celeste, WRC6, Far Cry 2 and Lara Croft GoL
I wonder the same thing... maybe eventually that will happen, and mass market is just a bit slower to adopt for now, or don't know of the programs? Really hard to say, mass market consumers sometimes just don't pay attention to these things too closely. And some people just don't like subscriptions I guess? Don't know for sure.
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(16147809)

Thread Xbox Games with Gold January - Celeste, WRC6, Far Cry 2 and Lara Croft GoL
Participating in programs like PS+ and GwG generally lead to higher sales of the game outside of the subscriber base. These programs tend to supplement, not cannibalize, sales.
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(16148160)

Thread Xbox Games with Gold January - Celeste, WRC6, Far Cry 2 and Lara Croft GoL
I'm more of a what's happening type analyst, more than why. But my hypotheses would include that participating games are engaged with more, people tell their friends & fam about the games, or those on friends lists would see the games being played, more general conversation takes place around the games (like this thread and social), the games get more promotional placement on storefronts due to participation, etc... participating in these programs tends to have a viral effect, at least for the games I've worked sales planning on or looked at since.
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(16141091)

Thread Mat Piscatella: Over the first three months in market, Marvel's Spider-Man is now the fastest selling superhero game in US history
Oh hey. No bundle sales are included in software rankings, and like everything software, we rank on consumer spending (dollar sales).
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(16119809)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
What's with all the Diablo 3 interest this month when it launched on Switch in last month's reporting and charted?
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(16122137)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Anyone joining the DLP agrees to share data back to Jan 2012. So yeah, big restatement were that to happen.Its definitely civ, but I find myself playing it differently on switch than PC. Hard to explain, but in my head they're almost different experiences?I dont see how it stops being niche tbh, not unless we start seeing exponential growth... and that's not super likely. Maybe next gen.
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(16120643)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Ah okay. Hopefully we can add eShop soon. Civ on Switch is great. Almost a different game.
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(16123402)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Matt Harvey seems like a guy who will eventually pitch for the Padres. But he's not quite yet washed up enough.
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(16114236)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
The issue is assuming the bumps seen in prior gens was "normal" to begin with.It wasn't.
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(16113614)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Eh doesn't really matter if its Xbox, pickles or dog food, just because something grew at a particular rate in history doesn't mean it should be expected to continue to do so.
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(16113277)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Assuming that increases that were seen in early console markets would extend and become exponential is an... aggressive... assumption.
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(16115120)

Thread ResetEra Games of the Year 2018 - Voting Thread (READ THE OP) [Ends Jan 20th 8:59am EST]
**VoteBot: Thanks for participating in ResetEra GOTY 2018! You vote receipt is available .**
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(16099340)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
My beginning of the year prediction of Switch leading in both units and dollars this year is one I'm sticking with, but I can see a bunch of potential scenarios possibly playing out.
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(16099519)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
I get people tweeting me and making comments on YouTube every month that are far more direct about their opinion on that prediction, to put it nicely. I've learned some people take this extremely seriously. It's unfortunate, to say the least.
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(16092696)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
Oh, I don't know. Is today supposed to be release?
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(16092522)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
I'm not sure, actually. I guess that's something I should probably know?
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(16089777)

Thread Nintendo Switch is the fastest selling console of this generation in the US (Smash 3m, BotW 4m, SMO 4.7m)
The obsession over that 20m number... never seen or heard of anything like it, ever.
Published

(16095888)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Look out Newport Beach, Matt Harvey is in town. The Yardhouse and Muttlynch's wont know what hit them.
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(16099247)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
I dont see any data until well after the month has closed. I didn't see the complete data for today's release until yesterday, for example.
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(16093934)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
Not a dumb question... Nov/Dec is when the lower priced SKUs will thrive. Switch is the only platform that experienced YoY growth in November, however, and sales were driven by the Neon 32GB SKU and the Mario Kart bundle.You've got it... no digital sales included for Fallout 76, and I have to imagine the digital share for it would be substantial.
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(16093273)

Thread NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
PS4 was #1 in Units for the month of November, but the more meaningful story of the month is dollars. So I highlighted that. Pokemon comps include ALL other Pokemon titles, but each Pokemon title is listed separately. Pokemon Sun is a different product than Pokemon Moon, for example.
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Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
The Wii was the last platform with a full Metroid title. You saw what happened with the Wii. Correlation = perfect causation.
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(15948285)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
It's tiring how the leading voices are just those that shout the loudest. Sports, video games, politics... it's all just volume and snark. Ugh.I'd have to get out my time machine and travel back to 1998 in order to ask. And I seem to have misplaced it.
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(15946481)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
Well now I'm convinced. Here are the classifications. If you don't agree feel free to scream into the void.
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(15913538)

Thread Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2018 (Dec 03 - Dec 09)
You get comfortable with high ranges of forecast error driven by lack of comparable sample. Meaning, more precisely, you do that math and then take a best stab at what a forecast should look like, knowing it'll almost certainly be wrong. We likely don't know more than we do know about the factors that impact variability of sales and to what degree they do so. Mainly driven by lack of precise data, but there are other things that aren't quite measurable, at least not yet, like some of the randomness/unidentifiable aspects around human purchase behavior and motivators.
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(15894776)

Thread Amazing games that sold far fewer copies than they should have?
I'll submit Enemy Territory: Quake Wars and Alice: Madness Returns. ETQW was a fantastic team based shooter that was played by far more people than actually bought it. AMR has some of the best art design that's ever been included in a video game.
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(15885303)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
It would be the first time for home consoles, were that to happen. The only time 3 platforms of any type ever achieved that in the same Nov month was Nov 2010.
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(15850705)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
Especially since Smash will be physical only that would be... a very interesting development.
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(15849837)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Dollar Sales 1) Halo: Reach 2) Halo 4 3) Halo 2 4) Halo 3 5) Marvel's Spider-Man
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(15850426)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
Anyone who says that we should have expected Spider-Man to do what it's done should be catapulted to the moon, never to return.Stats are stats, and facts and facts. dealwithit.gif
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(15849483)

Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
I'd be okay with this, especially if it's for Yates or Myers. 4.17 FIP last year because of an elevated walk rate. Seems like he could be fixed?
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(15828661)

Thread What do you think will be the biggest flop of 2019?
Sometimes games that sell few units end up profitable and above a company's expectations, and sometimes a game can make the top 10 sellers of the year and disappoint terribly. 'Flop'is just incredibly subjective and relates to either inconsistent or unknown expectations. So, shrug.
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(15804861)

Thread Overall, What City in the U.S. Has The Best Mexican Food?
San Diego has the best baja, but LA has a wider variety of regional options that are stellar. SD or LA, cant go wrong. SD pulls ahead because of California burritos though.
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(15791237)

Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
I've never done the correlation math on half gallons of milk and video game sales. Interesting. Might have to partner with IRI to get that sweet milk data, but nothing is impossible.
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(15772097)

Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
Doesn't matter to me if you buy or don't buy. Just trying to give some context. Do whatever you want, it's your money. If you're not satisfied with what is being offered, or where, or at what price, then just don't buy.
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(15769980)

Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
And if publishers see a higher % cut from a different storefront some are okay with selling fewer units. I get why people are frustrated, but the math is the math. Some publishers will prefer going after the higher margin, some after the higher addressable market, no two pubs/devs are the same, just as no two customers are the same.
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(15769154)

Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
Steam did nothing short of save PC gaming. If it weren't for Steam, many games would have never come to the platform. I dont think anyone has forgotten this. But that was yesterday. Today, the platform is doing great and people want a higher cut. Is what it is.
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(15768933)

Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
But because of, wait for it... compeition... that competing storefronts can offer more attractive terms.
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(15768618)

Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
This question is why the PC market is where it is.
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(15767434)

Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
Sorry, I dont understand the point you're trying to make. And I never said it was a mutually exclusive situation.
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(15766493)

Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
Defining a term like "competition" only through the lens of one perspective is... narrow. Devs/pubs are a customer of the storefront just as consumers are of the content they buy. Competition doesn't exist from just one perspective. It's cool for anyone to look at this stuff any way they wish, but there have been pages and pages and threads and threads about this one term because of a difference in definition.
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(15766266)

Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
Yep. Same in games. A retailer can, of course, choose to sell a game at a discount without partnership, but the retailer then eats the entire discount out of their own margin, and retail margins are pretty thin to begin with, so retailers tend not to do this. Sometimes they do though. Rarely, if they have share goals or some other metric they're chasing. Retailers doing this also put the publisher relationship at risk. But sure, it happens. Far, far more often it's the publisher agreeing to fund a portion of the discount in order to protect the retailer's margin. This can be done via a % discount on a digital store or by what's called a back end rebate at b&m retai, where a pub gives an agreed upon $ per unit rebate to the retailer for every unit sold during the promotion.
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Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
Price promotion is just about always funded by the publisher, both digitally and at retail. If you think the digital storefronts regularly eat margin to discount games without partnering you are mistaken. If anything, the lower % on Epic's store makes deep discounting easier, not harder.
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Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
They should though. Lower price on Epic vs other digital retailers. Increased margin with opportunity for incremental sales. Going the exclusive distribution route will work for now, but at some point folks on the Epic store are going to have to take advantage of the one real advantage the storefront has, and that's on margin and price.
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Thread Steam, Origin, uPlay, Bethesda, Epic, W10 Store, Rockstar Social Club, GoG Galaxy, where's the line?
Why do some of you think the only customers that are being competed for here are end consumers? The "competition" lens some of you are looking at this with is too narrow.
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Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
I want the Padres to do something but at the same time I'm scared that the Padres will do something.
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Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
If they sign Goldy to a long term deal he'll be a baseball god in that town.
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Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
How does the perception issue impact the ultimate end point of all similar trains of discussion... "Wii was or was not a fad"?
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Thread November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
BTW I'm a bocce ball player, not a console warrior.Source? If PSVR warrants it, then sure.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
PlayStation's great performance is noted every month in the analyst notes with the data release. The tweet is my take on the One X. Has nothing to do with the PS4. The sales between these two systems are not related. And you keep making vague references to media or articles. I'm not a journalist.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
It is not surprising. It is misguided.They're really not, at least not at the level I think you're implying. Cross-ownership is very high, and the success of one does not necessarily result in declines for one of the others. Particularly Switch, which has shown very high cross-ownership rates. Rankings and performance are not related. Maybe the only thing to take from this is in that context is "Well, if X is doing great, but PS4 is still leading in overall sales then PS4 must be doing something even more special."Only if you look at it in a unit vacuum, which is not a good way to look at it.And if it were a zero sum market that might make some sense. But gaming certainly isn't, so it's a pointless exercise. It's only when people root for these plastic and metal boxes like they do for their favorite football team or something.It's not my data to share. If these companies wish to share that information they certainly can.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
I love the video game market because it's so chaotic and impossible. And I enjoy making predictions and could not possibly care less if they don't work out because it's an impossible industry to predict/forecast. And hey, I've been dressed down by some of the biggest names in the industry for not getting forecasts/predictions right in the past, and yet here I am still doing it, because I base them in solid grounding and rationale and I'm right more than half the time, which is about as good as can be expected. Dog food/CPG forecasting is fine because it's so easy and the quant tools available are amazing, but it's pretty boring. All driven by formula. Video games needs far more art and creative thinking. The Uncle Ben's vs Minute Rice battles were far more interesting. Yes. Unfortunately, I'm not able to comment on it publicly.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
Absolutely, which had a huge impact, particularly in 1H. But that applied more across the board. Comping that as an industry is going to be exceptionally difficult unless we have some new phenomenon show up. For HW I'm talking units. I'm assuming that ASPs will have to come down, whether through a permanent price drop or additional price promotion. Keep in mind though that a price drop is a complete margin hit, so you have to increase sales at a far greater rate than the level of the price reduction in order to maintain the same profit. And I'm not sure the price sensitivity is there to have this math make sense (which can also be inferred from the flow of units for BF). Switch should be up Jan-Oct, Nov-Dec will be a tougher comp. And yeah, thinking XBO/PS4 will both have tough comps next year. If COD returns to Nov next year the Oct declines will look real, real bad.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
Still feel good about it. And if it doesn't take the top spot, it'll likely be close. PS4 has overdelivered on all expectations (even Sony's). That's great. Given available data at the time, wouldn't change a single thing about my predictions. But that's the thing with predictions... as more information becomes available things change. Predictions/forecasting in the Video Game space I'd argue is the toughest category in any store to get completely right. I used to model dog food sales for Masterfoods USA. I could tell you to the dozens of units what the impact of a 2 cent price drop on wet beef chunk would be across the entire USA. Video games? You nail a forecast if you're within +/- 15%.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
The market is not zero sum. It's business, not sports. A particular product can be a massive success and not lead the market. In regards to impact on next gen, far too early to have a take on whether or not the refreshes could impact initial install base. We dont even know when it'll happen or what the next gen looks like.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
Pro has also done exceptionally well. The entire iterative model concept has worked better than I think most in the industry expected. They're both a significant contributor their respective platform's total sales. The context of the original tweet was my responding to someone who said they were glad to know when to stay off Twitter with the media release dates because they would get ridiculed because the person was an Xbox fan. That's ridiculous for a number of reasons, one of which being that Xbox One has had a fantastic year, particularly X. But instead of anyone bothering to ask "oh hey, so X has done well, what about Pro?" I've received a bunch of flack on Twitter and there's also a number of posters here that are more interested in making sure nothing that can be construed as being relatively positive is said about one company's product they don't like for some reason. Weird, that.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
I also expected declines this year but then God of War and Spider-Man happened, and they've been real smart with bundles and promotional pricing. But so many things have gone perfectly this year for PS4, it's not reasonable to assume that this can be sustained. I've upped my forecast for next year but another year of growth is just incredibly unlikely. Would be great to see though. If total market gets to growth next year it will be in the low single digits. This year has set a very high bar with higher than usual incidence of upside outliers.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
Yeah it's not great. Have to talk about the leaders for press coverage, but cant add detail because of partner agreements. I get the frustration and confusion, but the vitriol is unfortunate.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
Can't imagine the grief I'd get if for the Novemeber release I didnt list the hardware leader or said that 2 consoles came in virtually tied...
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
The shortages were unfortunate, because yes there was demand that could not be met. And yes, both iterative boxes have done well, and the whole concept has been a success. But I responded to someone on Twitter who said they wanted to stay off Twitter on data release day because they get ridiculed over sales results because he's an Xbox fan. Which is ludicrous on many levels, one of them being that Xbox One has had an incredibly successful year. Of course after I put that out there I've gotten quite a few... passionate... replies. Were anyone to actually ask follow up questions or look into it just the tiniest bit... but that's not what some are interested in. They just want to attack. It's sad.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
I cant comment on the actual gap, but there are people out there that think it's 2:1 or higher in favor of PS4. In the X thread someone was saying PS4 had over 80% share. And whats particularly funny there is that there are a bunch of people quite unhappy with what I said about X and not one person has asked about Pro, which has also been doing exceptionally well. But it's not really about understanding the business with more depth, is it.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
Actually... yes. . The period I'm referring to is YTD end Nov 3rd. The Black Friday deal and other November sales won't be released until Dec 18th. People think that at this point every generation. And every generation things go haywire and something completely different happens.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
The real stuff goes down on the athletic shoe forums and twitter. No joke. I thought console war nonsense was the worst, but then I started following our Athletic wear analyst and my lord.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
Yep, likely going to be pretty ugly. Of course, rather than focus on cyclical dynamics proven out time and again we'll get the same old "Did THING kill consoles?" nonsense that happens every single time. Oh well.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
Well next year could be a lot of doom and gloom regardless. Looming tariffs and potential govt intervention could have huge negative impact on the market. It's unreasonable to assume Sony can deliver another year of exclusives on the sales scale of God of War and Marvel's Spider-Man, and Xbox One will be comping to a full year of X and of course they're ramping up for the future so who knows what the slate will look like. The only company really poised for big growth next year is Nintendo, but there is nothing certain here. Next year could be pretty tough. Sure we'll start seeing consoles are doomed articles again.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
eShop digital sales are not currently included in the monthly reporting. Good thing to keep in mind when looking at the all platforms charts.
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Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Richards at least has the potential of being worth that amount. The $3m and under guys they've been signing for years haven't had that potential. A staff of Clayton Richardsses and Makitas and Bryan Mitchells ain't going to do much. $15m is the kind of money Danny Duffy, Alex Cobb and Mike Leake make in a year, and they're pretty god awful. So while it ain't bargain basement, it's still a deal with plenty of upside potential. I mean look at the free agents... Marco Estrada, Ervin Santana, Lance Lynn... these guys will all likely fall in that range and they're garbage with no upside potential. $15m just ain't that much in the SP market.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
Correct. Extrapolating from cards to subs has, as you'd imaginge, a massive range of error. So we don't do that. We do have EEDAR's PlayerPulse survey product that allows us to do better modeling around subs. Still not perfect, and has a range of error like any sample based survey does, but I think it's ballpark if not pretty close. That's what I use when constructing the spend estimates for the total market releases quarterly.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
I would be very surprised (shocked, actually) if this happened given the comp to the X launch month last Nov. I can see Dec potentially being another growth month. In the September media release I quoted Xbox One hardware dollar sales being up more than 60% year to date at that time. October Xbox One HW dollar sales more than doubled compared to a year ago, so YTD dollars are now up a bit more. This is being driven by One X performance. We've never seen this kind of growth at this stage in a cycle before. It's an unprecedented turnaround. Doesn't mean the other systems aren't doing great. They both are. And it doesn't mean that Xbox One is the market leading hardware, it's not. But that doesn't negate what's happening here. It's remarkable.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
HW units and dollars are both important, and I do refer to both in the media releases. But, given promotional pricing and other ways in which software units are delivered at negligible cost, software units are highly unreliable for trend analysis imo.
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Thread Xbox One X "Performing Phenomenally" says NPD
You didn't ask me, but I'm here so... My gut tells me there will be multiple price/performance offerings for whatever is next from Xbox. An entry level digital only/streaming device at a low price, a mid-range with better guts and an optical drive, and a high end performance model at a premium price.
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Thread PR: Switch surpasses Wii in best-selling Nintendo console in US on BF+CM. +115% HW over 2017
Made it to the beach pizza joint, the "PB Hot Chick" basically buffalo chicken pizza. And yes, weasled. Talk about not knowing how to take something lol
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Thread PR: Switch surpasses Wii in best-selling Nintendo console in US on BF+CM. +115% HW over 2017
Y'all jaded. I'm honestly stoked that so many people are applying different methodology to extrapolate what's going on. It's legit fun to see and exciting to have peeps be so into it. I live for this stuff.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
Yes it will be tallied, and probably not what I would deem significant (the term is a bit subjective in this case), but we'll see.
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Thread PR: Switch surpasses Wii in best-selling Nintendo console in US on BF+CM. +115% HW over 2017
I won't see any November actuals until like December 7th. So all I'm really thinking about right now is what I'm going to have for lunch and whether I can weasel my way out of my 2PM conference call.
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Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
Picking up Cano would be so quintessentially Met that I want it to happen just so I know there is still something in the world working as it should.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
Yes. Like Wii Fit and Wii Play, if an accessory is bundled with a game disc/cart the total spend is allocated to the game. It was a joke.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
Software is messier than hardware this Nov as well. COD shifting from Nov to Oct is going to wreak havoc with the comps. Even with a massive Pokemon launch (if it is so) it's a huge ask to try to comp to a COD launch month without a new COD.
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Thread Spider-Man PS4 $199 Black Friday Bundle Is So Popular It Is Already Selling Out Everywhere
So one could actually return the gamepad and game and keep the PS4 for a cool $100. Well, hope it drove the traffic numbers they wanted.
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Thread Spider-Man PS4 $199 Black Friday Bundle Is So Popular It Is Already Selling Out Everywhere
And reportedly sold out before the actual time the deal was to go live. This was old school doorbuster traffic driving is all.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
PSVR hardware is tracked as part of our VR reporting within our Tech group. However, PSVR spend is included within reported spend under the Accessories and Gamecards bucket within the monthly media release. And were the sales ever notable/meaningful to the story of a month, I would note that performance as part of accessories spend. Games for PSVR are reported with all the other gaming software, no differences.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
All these posts declaring with certainty one console selling more than another... man I wish I had that confidence. Selling out =/= selling best. All depends on qty out there. Can't sell units that don't exist.
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Thread Spider-Man PS4 $199 Black Friday Bundle Is So Popular It Is Already Selling Out Everywhere
Someone must not actually follow my feed then, because I was worried I was overhyping the Spider-Man bundle. Thing is, have no idea on quantity produced for this and the Kart Switch bundle, so yep both were super hot, but will that be reflected in the Nov results? Tough to say. Based on store checks and anecdotal, the Spidey bundle, the One X and the Kart Switch bundle all seemed to do real well. But selling out doesnt necessarily mean much, all depends on how many units were made available. Shrug.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
No one retailer is representative of the entire market. Trying to use one retailer to extrapolate is inherently flawed, regardless of the retailer.
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Thread MLB 2018-2019 Off Season |OT| Now welcoming postseason losers
I wouldn't mind Donaldson on a one year deal in SD so he can prove he's healthy and mentor the kids while keeping the left side of the infield warm for Tatis. Ideally we'd punt Myers for a 3B or SS, but if that doesn't work perhaps Donaldson would, assuming folks wouldn't want to go long high $ deal off the injury.
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Thread NPD: "The lack of a SP campaign did not hurt Black Ops IIII launch month sales in the slightest"
It may have sold even more with a campaign. Impossible to say for certain. And maybe not having a campaign did put some people off (personally, I haven't bought the game for the first time ever) and perhaps this was offset by more people hopping on because of Blackout. ATVI probably knows, I don't have access to player info. I'm just saying that, looking at month 1 I don't see the lack of SP hurting the game. I thought it may. I'm certainly NOT saying that "sp is dead" or anything silly like that. Open world SP is doing great. And again, a campaign may have helped the game sell even more. I just don't think not having it hurt it significantly.
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Thread Forbes: PS4 Is Hiding A PSVR Masterpiece (Astro Bot: Rescue Mission)
If having or wanting a PSVR is the criteria, then yes. It is hiding. Not quite like Waldo, but not too far off either. I adore Astro Bot, but to say that everyone is aware of it does not reflect reality.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
It's strange that two games are treated as two games? The publisher ultimately determines how games are classified and aggregated. If Nintendo wished us to combine the two into one for rollup purposes we would. I do too.
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Thread NPD analyst: "Hardware cycles as we knew them are over"
So, probably should have used more concrete context. "Highly unpredictable" is really in reference to an expected range of error in a hardware forecast. Of course it isn't random, and of course hardware sales can be forecast. But the range of error is higher now. "Highly unpredictable" can signal randomness, which is certainly not the case here. Bad word choice on my part.
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Thread NPD Oct 2018: COD: BO4 and RDR2 top the charts, PS4 best selling hardware
I updated these again earlier this month. Will still be wrong, heh. Only thing one knows about a video game prediction is that it's probably wrong.
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Thread NPD: "The lack of a SP campaign did not hurt Black Ops IIII launch month sales in the slightest"
I know you're kidding... but yeah SP games are very alive and very well. Plenty of room in the market for all kinds of games. And who knows, maybe adding a campaign would have helped the game sell even more. Big takeaway lately is that no one rule can be applied as a blanket to the entire market.
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Thread NPD: Top 10 Best Selling Exclusives between 1995 and 2018
- EDITED: Yeah, brain's mush. Going to stop now - Thanks for the assist ZhugeEX. Just for that, the next 5 (6, really) on the list would be X360 Halo 4, X360 Halo: Reach, X360 Halo 3, Wii Super Mario Galaxy, N64 GoldenEye 007 and then N64 Mario Kart 64. My brain broke at some point making the initial chart. It happens. It's data release week. Looking at lots of spreadsheets.
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Thread October 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, November 13th
Because, due to a data coding issue, physical data has been delayed to this evening or Monday morning. Which ANY of y'all could have just gone and asked me about via DM or Twitter. All it would have taken.
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Thread NPD: The Best Selling Game By Year From 1995 - 2017 (Top 3 each year in OP)
Sure... overall, the lists will be very similar. Big exception is NHL will always basically be top 3, and FIFA generally charts a bit higher as well. But the same big franchises are on the list. I'm hoping to be able to start doing Canadian charts and summaries in the future.
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Thread NPD: The Best Selling Game By Year From 1995 - 2017
This is a good question. Was basically 2-4% between 2000-08, since then it's been running 5-8% Correct. If DLC is sold in the same package as the full game, the dollars are counted towards the game.
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Thread NPD: Top 10 Life-To-Date Sold on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One
Digital tracking goes back to Jan 2012 for members of the digital leader panel. Halo is still Halo. May not be the juggernaut it once was, but it's still one of the biggest IPs in gaming, if not entertainment as a whole.
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Thread NPD: Top 10 Life-To-Date Sold on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One
Testing the waters with these to see what feedback I get... hopefully. Peeps sure do love Vita charts. I swear they get the most engagement of any of the charts I post every month.
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Thread NPD: Top 10 Life-To-Date Sold on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One
NBA 2K18, Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege and Overwatch are all well within jumping on the Xbox One top 10 by end of year, so long as other titles don't raise the bar (which they likely will). Marvel's Spider-Man will jump on the PS4 list next month, while Destiny 2 is well within range, but with the same caveats on the bar being raised by the big Q4 releases. Destiny is a funky one... Destiny, Destiny: The Collection and Destiny: The Taken King are all considered separate titles.
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Thread NPD Sep 2018: Spider-Man has largest launch in PlayStation exclusive history, PS4 best selling HW
So I've told people over the last couple years that I've been posting here is that I do it because I learn things and there are users here that make me think about things in different ways and I appreciate it. Over the last few months, this hasn't been the case. If people have questions, they can find me on twitter. X is the leading segment for dollar sales this year, while Base/S leads for units. If you want clarification on things you can just ask me instead of talking so much garbage. It's a bit higher, mid-20s. I included everything with the Spider-Man brand, which also includes some PC stuff that doesn't get picked up on the aggregation sites.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
It's great when there's an underdog. When both teams involved have mega payrolls and are ultra engineered it's tough to get excited about the series unless one is already a fan of one of the teams. It's more of a I hope the team I dislike less wins.
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
Consequences? I expect sales to be up significantly YoY and multiple games to set sales records. More games = more sales. The market has proven again and again that it's not zero sum, and the more big games are released the more overall money is spent. There will be winners and losers, as there are always winners and losers.
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
I cant comment on individual title performance prior to data release, and I don't know how any of the current PR statements were derived. However, I'm not particularly concerned when it comes to the number of releases this year. Quality, marketing support and consumer response per individual title will more likely determine success or disappointment. Day 1 also means less now than it ever has when it comes to game performance. A great or bad launch doesn't guarantee similar success over the life of product anymore. So all sales data this time of year is quite noisy with a small sample too. Makes it impossible to point the finger at precise reasons for performance in a strong majority of cases.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
No way does Verlander lose this game. He will channel Mike Scott, JR Richard and Nolan and twirl a gemmmmmmmm. So wait, no Marlins guy thank God. Does he skip Houston because everyone else already wears orange?
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
What is even happening. Is this thread in some kind of alternate timeline? Is this website some portal to another Earth? Baffling. I'm baffled.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Weird that teams from New York and Boston benefit on nonsense outfield fan interference calls while teams from Houston and Baltimore don't. Thinking.emoji
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
Wide range of predictions this month. Donny, you ever do standard deviation analysis on the prediction sample to determine variability?
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
My problem with Dodger fans at Dodger Stadium isn't that they give some grief to opposing fans, it's the complete lack of creativity. "You suck" "your team sucks" "this is LA" and various name calling laced with f-bombs. At least in other towns there is some creativity and panache with the smack. In LA it's just boring. Well, until they start throwing punches with the insults.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
We playing the drinking game where everyone downs one every time Smoltz implies baseball sucks? I have a fresh case and a few bottles. Should be enough to get me through the fourth.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Says he feels great and the team says it's shared risk/reward so probably a cheap upfront deal with lots of performance bonuses. Seems like a good flier to take?
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
Yeah, it's messy. If the DLC is included with the purchase of the full game, then those revenues are included in the full game reporting. DLC sales not part of a full game sale are not included in the reporting. PC Digital revenues are not included for either full game sales or DLC because Destiny 2 is exclusive to battle.net, a platform we do not have permission from ATVI to report on at this time.
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
Don't know. But if they are upgraders, the old PS4 finds its way to another user via gift or trade in, so the net is another user. It's not like the old boxes are getting thrown in the trash or the closet at this point.
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
I'm not going to talk about shares or anything, but I will say the abnormally strong demand for both boxes this year is being driven by the iterative consoles. Avg pricing is considerably higher this year than last, as are combined sales.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Welp. It was a good year, ATL. You made it at least a year earlier than anyone thought. Future is bright. Future is not now. Brewers-Doyers going to be a good time.
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Thread [Rumor] Sony planning Backward Compatibility for PS5
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 went from being the #321st best-selling game of July 2018 in the US to #8 in August 2018 due to backwards compatibility being launched for the title on Xbox One. Remasters require not insignificant development resources. Backwards compatibility can be implemented much more quickly and at far lower cost. For 3rd party publishers at least, backwards compatibility is generally preferable to remasters.
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
Not sure on the first, bit too speculative for me. As for the second, haven't thought about it. My time is being focused on the top 10 or so.
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
Neither. Mario Party 6 had a massive launch. But no digital and limited days tracked certainly doesn't help the new one.
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
Comparing calendar month sales across titles is by nature silly and too dependent on a number of variables that won't be apples:apples. I use these comparisons in the media notes because people like to talk about them and they get coverage, but yeah, they aren't the best.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
The Astros weren't doing this in Houston though, were they? So they think there's some dude in center field or something reflecting the signs to the Indians hitters? Slowing the game down so much and it all seems like nonsense.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
So do the Astros think Cleveland is stealing signs or something? They're running through catcher signs as though there were runners on base when no one was on base.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Imagine paying that much for tickets to go sit in this weather and watch your favorite team just disintegrate in front of your eyes. Oof and now you can hear the boos. Bummer.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Jim Kaat likes baseball. Alright, anyone up for a drinking game? Anytime a player that retired before 1977 is discussed, drink. We will all be dead by the top of the third.
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Thread September 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 16th
I'm personally expecting whatever forecast I have to end up conservative, as has basically been the case all year. VG hardware is the best performing category in all of NPD tracking this year (including everything from toys to prestige beauty to auto parts... we cover a ton of industries worth trillions).
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Trying to discover the lowest possible level in which the trolling works. The more basic the trolling gets the more people seem to fall for it. I wouldn't get this past Chicago or New York or even Atlanta fans.... but it's LA so whatever standard one has it must be lowered. Just trying to find how low is low. Once the Dodgers win the World Series in a couple weeks then it'll all work out. They look unstoppable.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Booing Clayton Kershaw? For shame. At least Koufax had the decency to give him a standing ovation. Not a surprise though. Sandy is from Brooklyn and started his career there, and at least New York fans are good fans.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
So Sox sweep Yanks, Astros embarrass Cleveland... then Boston and Houston go 7. In the meantime, Milwaukee and LA meet up in the NLCS, but the Dodgers freeze when having to play in front of a full stadium of good baseball fans in Milwaukee and have to forfeit as they're scared of all the people after having played in front of nothing but empty seats in LA because the NBA started. Milwaukee then goes rested and ready in the W.S. and win after BOS/HOU are exhausted from the 7 game ALCS. Brewers win.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Falling asleep listening to Costas drone on about ye olden days. Just playing with you Dodger fans. I can prove it, I'm the guy in the Ethier jersey next to the guy destroyed by the diving catch.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Its not a sellout. They just talked about it not being a sellout on the broadcast. There are sections with entire empty rows. LA is terrible. Sooner you accept it the sooner you can find happiness.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Taking Friday off to watch all the games. That schedule of games is glorious. Verlander, Kluber, Sale, Kershaw... all on the same day? My god. AND SANCHEZ AND CHACIN? HOW CAN WE BE SO LUCKY TO BE ALIVE RIGHT NOW.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
But you're cursed. So do you actually want Dodgers Brewers and are asking us to join you in rooting for the other teams to trick the curse? Going for the ol switcheroo bamboozle?
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Edwin Jackson or Mike Fiers could have given up a 1st inning home run to Judge like Hendricks did. So goofy how baseball is so mired down in the concrete of tradition. A pitcher is a pitcher who cares. Real story is how Severino is pitching an absolute gem that would beat Cy Young, Sandy Koufax and Orel Hershiser in their primes. So who cares who starts for the A's.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
I adored the Cubs back when it was Jody Davis and Ryno and all that... but then they worked over Andre Dawson at the height of collusion, and now the ownership are certainly not my cup of tea. Hating the Cubs is perhaps a bit strong, but preferring some other team gets a shot given some of the.... personalities.... like Baez and Murphy on the Cubs? Seems cool to me.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
Some of y'all are delusional. Heyward has $120m+ coming to him over the next 5 years and over the past three years has delivered a total 5.1 WAR. There's more likelihood of the planet being sucked into a black hole today by 3PM than there is of Heyward opting out. The more the option is even uttered the dumber we all get for having to read it.
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Thread MLB 2018 Playoffs |OT| It Took A Little Extra To Get Here
People whining about things being "unfair" with playoff baseball? Where you been since forever? Play better in the first 162 or 163 and you're not in this "unfair" position.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
Plenty of history of LA not showing up for early playoff rounds. It's fine, 70% of the town cant watch the team regularly anyways, probably dont know any of this is even happening.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
Tyler Austin just hit a home run and the Tigers first baseman tripped him as he was rounding first. Tried to play it off like a mistake, but dude tripped him. Face first into the dirt. I would say the name of the Tiger first baseman but no one knows it so who cares.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
If a PC is specced only to play WoW and not 4K Witcher 3 it's still a PC. The categorization of Switch doesn't matter. It's completely meaningless in the modern marketplace. I don't know what OUYA and Vita TV were classified as and it's not worth the time it would take me to go look. That's how much this categorization doesn't matter.
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Thread The variety in the gaming industry sucks nowadays with too much of certain genres and few of others
OP hasn't confirmed it was satire yet? Pretty sure it has to be satire.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
I mean yeah its August. September will be nuts. PS4 should have a historic month while Switch and Xone should also be very strong. 2018 has been a remarkable year. 2019 will be a much tougher year with negative comps and so I'm sure we will get back to DOOM posts which should make the threads bigger.
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Thread MLB The Show 18 |OT| Monster Dongs for a New ERA
So... how do you grind these programs out? I find myself doing CPU Rookie games in COL and CIN constantly and it's boring as hell but all I'm doing is trying to crack these ridiculous CG SHO and SV missions to unlock dudes to just use the new dudes in the same way. It's the definition of insanity.
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Thread MLB The Show 18 |OT| Monster Dongs for a New ERA
I want to love this game but I'm learning to hate it. And this sucks. It doesn't respect my time and that's the worst. Over $400 and 250 hours into this year's game and I still don't have a single immortal unlocked. It's like the game is giving me the finger.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
VR is treading water, Interactive Gaming Toys have cratered, uhhhh... I mean some stuff isn't doing so hot but generally these threads are only concerned with hardware, which doesn't really make as much sense anymore since each device is doing different things rather than all trying to be the same thing like the PS2/XBX/NGC era.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
Strong disagree on this point. The distinction between consoles and portables was intended to provide context for a different categorization of content. 10 years ago the kinds of games available on consoles and portables was very different, they had far different audiences, play patterns and pricing and well. The Switch plays the exact same kind of content the ps4 and xone do. It caters to the same audience, same pricing and offers a similar play pattern with the additional option of mobility. To take two pieces of hardware that plays the same content, had a similar audience and pricing structure, and bucket them separately just because one has a screen and the others dont is not reasonable. If anything, we should remove the portable/console splitting in public releases as portables are no longer all that relevant and having the seperation called out is no longer meaningful.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
So. If someone goes into Best Buy or whatever and buys a $100 Xbox Marketplace card, or a game branded Game Card that contains $100 in generic digital credit, that sale is compiled and reported on within the Game Card bucket in the monthly reporting. However, if that same person then goes home, punches in the code, and then uses some of that credit to buy COD:WWII on Xbox One, then that sale unit and value is compiled and reported on as a Digital Full Game sale in Software and used in determining sales rankings for COD:WWII. Then, you'll say, well isn't that double counting? Potentially. However, since we do not report on MTX/DLC spending in digital in the monthly release, and since we do not have permission to report on digital full game sales outside of the Digital Leader Panel on Steam, PSN and XBX, even with that potential double counting we are coming nowhere near reporting on total market digital in the monthly release. Now, with the total market reporting we do from the Games Market Dynamics report, and like we released recently for 1H total spending, we strip out all of the Game Card sales and classify it appropriately, and then we model out the rest of the market to avoid all double counting. Gets way more complicated than one would assume I think.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
I... think so? My hunch is that the NES Classic Edition / SNES Classic Edition is a perfect gifting item for the holidays when someone is buying a present for someone else. Family friendly, very cool to open, every older person in the family very likely at least has familiarity with the games. The PS Classic seems more to me like something that someone will buy for themselves as a gift, particularly core gamers. And these folks prove over and over that price sensitivity is very, very low and they'll pay whatever. So, yeah, I think it is, but I think it'll be bought a bit differently than the NIntendo systems? Who knows. My assumption is that these should be incredibly difficult to find throughout the holidays and into 2019.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
The console manufacturers and third party publishers are partners and communicate all the time. I don't think pressure is the right word. There are many factors both technical and strategic that can impact these kinds of decisions, and as with any decision which is influenced by so many people opinions and judgments will differ. So publishers will express their needs/wants, sure. But usually it's not a pressure thing. Back compat is a good deal for publishers, and it takes fewer development resources than a full remaster, but remasters will deliver more new revenue, on average. So then it becomes a math problem on expected demand vs costs.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
POS cards are defined as "Game Cards" and are aggregated within "Accessories and Game Cards" in the reporting. POS/Game Cards can include everything from digital credit on eShop, PSN, Xbox through WoW subscription cards and Gold subscription cards and everything else digital that is sold via a Game Card. These sales are up over 40% year to date. Like I said above, sales of POS cards are counted within "Accessories and Game Cards." And we report Game Card sales for 100% of US retail. eShop codes are counted, as well as everything else, in this bucket. These are actually considered physical sales in the monthly reporting. In our Games Market Dynamics report () we allocate all of Game Card spending to the appropriate digital buckets, as well as project for all of the missing data pieces through a combination of point-of-sale, survey, statistical modeling, etc, to get to a complete market picture.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
Games sold as part of a "hard" bundle (the game is packed in to the same package with a hardware item) are not included in the software sales charts. So no, copies of Smash packed in with the Switch console will not be counted on the software charts, regardless if the game is on a cart or a code. Now, we do track sales of Nintendo digital sold via Game Cards purchased at retail. However, these sales are not included for calculating the software sales charts. Hope that's helpful. Lot of minutiae in how the reporting is put together. CoD:MW2 is still considered an Xbox 360 game, as are the other back compat titles supported on Xbox One. One idea I've kicked around is just having an Xbox top title list and a PlayStation top title list excluding platform breakouts. Seems like something to consider more strongly if and when back compat is confirmed for both next gen systems.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
JRPGs generally have very high decay rates post launch. Shrug. Sure. But predictions are wrong all the time too. Have no idea what kind of pricing will be in market for BF or Xmas week, someone goes deep discount it could swing things. Who knows.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
No Madden NFL 19 digital PC in these numbers, we currently do not have permission to report on Origin sales. I think it's cooling off a bit, but the data is noisy so it's hard to tell for sure. Eh, I think it'll be both, and Q4 will have significant growth because of it.
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Thread NPD August 2018: Madden NFL 19 #1, Switch #1 in hardware
Oops. My mistake. Yeah, it should have an asterisk. Although Capcom is a member of the Digital Leader Panel, we do not currently have permission to report on digital sales on Nintendo platforms. Switch led Units, PS4 barely edged out dollars.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
So was sitting out in the backyard seats at Petco which is right above the Giants bullpen. Some young lady that obviously had a couple too many came up to the bullpen fence and just started yelling at one of the Giants relievers in not a good way. Guess he "never called" and she wasn't having it. Awkwaaaaard.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
Bad baseball >>> No baseball. Which is why I spent bonafide US American dollars for tickets to tonight's Giants-Padres game. Pretty stoked to go see Urias and Mejia and to check out the new bullpen guys that are doing well. Are we still doing the oh noez about the Yankees being only the third best team in baseball? MLB.com must have the standings wrong then. Weird.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
Yankee record and standings on September 17: 2017 - 82 W - 67 L - .550 W-L %, - .611 pyth - 2nd place, 3 GB 2018 - 91 W - 58 L - .611 W-L % - .604 pyth - 2nd place, 11.5 GB
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
Yankee fans should set up a petition... since the team is so historically bad the fans should advocate that the team give up its 8.5 game lead in the wild card standings and just let Tampa into the playoffs in their stead. No sense in the Yankees even going to the WC game, only way to be fair.
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Thread Are we finally seeing the decline of Fortnite?
Ah I see. Viewership peaked in early Q2. Seeing slowing growth across data points that were driven by Fortnite earlier in the year like headsets and controllers. Also have major IP entering the BR space that will grow the audience but also steal share. Fortnite will continue to do fine, but more cash cow now than growth engine. The big IP are going to come in and take majority genre share.
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Thread August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th
Dont know. We dont track by user. My assumption is that if someone does upgrade the old console gets traded in, sold, or given to friends or family leading to a new user anyways. Shrug.
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Thread August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th
Exclusives matter. Hardware matters. Price matters. Marketing matters. Distribution matters. Production matters. Everything matters.
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Thread August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th
Meta only has a ballpark .25 to .3 r-squared to sales, so it certainly wouldn't be impossible or a sub 9 meta game to break into the sales neighborhood of 9+ games. It's rare to be sure, but that's why they're called outliers when it happens. God of War is already one massive positive sales outlier for PS4 this year. Looking quite likely that Marvel's Spider-Man could give the platform two. This happening is exceptionally rare, obviously. If Spider-Man can hit the type of numbers that seem possible, well, certainly something special. However, it'll still be good to keep in mind that outlier positive performers are outliers because they are so rare, and to expect that kind of performance with other games or even sequels to these particular outliers would be risky and probably unreasonable. I am looking forward to the September numbers. Gotta get through August first though.
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Thread August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th
So basically a velocity comp pre and post Fortnite momentum. I'll look, but would have to normalize for seasonality and discounting, and at that point the data gets so dirty that it'll most likely be inconclusive. I'll look at it. PSL people spend a lot. Some of those numbers are shocking. PSL people are like walking ATMs for businesses.
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Thread August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th
That's what the data suggests to me, although impossible to prove 100%. Well shoot. That's a tough one to know for sure. So, I keep having to write release notes about how game X is the best-selling game in whatever genre game X is in or the best-selling version of any game in the X franchise. But is that because of this expanded audience, or shrinking AAA release count, or perhaps one of a number of other factors? I'm not sure. And I don't have a data based breakdown of Fortnite players vs non-Fortnite players to compare things like tie ratios. So, I don't know. My hunch is that big mass market games will benefit, but I just don't know for sure. Well I think we have to wait and see if the dynamics that have occurred on Twitch between PUBG Fortnite and COD play out in sales as well. To this point, I don't think any particular games have been significantly impacted in a negative way. But we have a lot of the year left to play out.
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Thread August 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, September 11th
The focus on Labo is so incredibly weird. Sure, I thought it would sell more at this point. But it hasn't. Doesn't matter. And it'll sell more in holiday or it wont. Who knows. Pokemon will expand Switch to mass market and if it doesnt nothing else will. Like Labo is this cool idea that so far hasn't found a huge audience. Like, okay? Lots of products are like this. Anyways, Octo month 2 is interesting, and of course Madden is a key barometer for the holiday market. But someone buy coffee for the thread if we are just going to regurgitate Labo every month so everyone can stay awake.
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Thread NPD: 67% of Americans play games (90% mobile, 52% PC, 43% console), average 12 hours per week
Well, yeah. In the Gamer Segmentation Report, gamers are... segmented. These figures are the topline totals. In the report are all the breakdowns by the segments.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
But the original statement wasn't about anyone being lazy or not hustling. It was about Bird and Sanchez' stats and the fact they were batting together in the lineup. The Yankees are disappointing because Brid and Sanchez had bad stats. That is what is absurd.
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Thread NPD: 67% of Americans play games (90% mobile, 52% PC, 43% console), average 12 hours per week
Yes. And the Instant Games initiative is getting additional platform investment as well as a complete rework of the revenue sharing agreement with developers so even more games should be on the way. Just installed it... it seems ok?
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Thread NPD: 67% of Americans play games (90% mobile, 52% PC, 43% console), average 12 hours per week
Mobile includes tablets Switch is a Console The % are of the 211m gamers One office versus 5k sample survey? And firing up Candy Crush while in line somewhere or on the train counts as being a gamer. It's someone who has played a video game in the period.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
Yeah, I don't get this either. Yankees have an incredible record and tons of star power, but the Red Sox are one of the best teams maybe ever, so the Yankees suck? I'm just thankful that the Padres will never allow Padre fans to become entitled. Or something.
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Thread NPD: As of the end of Q1 (March 2018?), ~70% of US Switch owners also owned a PS4 and/or XB1
Releasing data points is always funny. If someone doesn't agree with it it's fake news. If it's a data point that people agree with it's so incredibly obvious it's stupid to even put it out there. Oh, internet. Adding a new binary segmentation into the data set. "Big Boy Games" "Not Big Boy Games" No evidence of this at all in sales data. The data suggests to me a hypothesis that there's more engagement with games overall with this set of cross-owners, who are in turn spending a higher % of their time and dollars on gaming entertainment than other areas. Pie gets bigger with more games and systems fueling higher engagement. Not zero sum by any means.
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Thread NPD: As of the end of Q1 (March 2018?), ~70% of US Switch owners also owned a PS4 and/or XB1
Ah I see. Well... there's tremendous overlap at the moment. So switch versions either have to come day 1 with other platforms or offer some use case benefit from portability. Linear, story based games aren't going to be the kinds of games that benefit in huge ways from later Switch ports right now. After Pokemon and Smash the audience mix could change significantly, and bring a bunch of Switch only console households which would change things.
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Thread NPD: As of the end of Q1 (March 2018?), ~70% of US Switch owners also owned a PS4 and/or XB1
Seems like square pegs and round holes trying to back into anything using doom and wolf 2 as the benchmarks.
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Thread NPD: As of the end of Q1 (March 2018?), ~70% of US Switch owners also owned a PS4 and/or XB1
We're talking Switch owners who also own a PS4 or Xbox One. Not sure where gaming PCs come into the mix?
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Thread NPD: As of the end of Q1 (March 2018?), ~70% of US Switch owners also owned a PS4 and/or XB1
By the end of calendar Q2, we're now estimating this number at approximately 65%, so it's come down a bit. Cross-ownership still pretty high. 5k household sample size survey. Done monthly, sample changes each month, normalized for a quarterly percentage. In the future, we are moving to EEDAR's PlayerPulse, which is also survey based, don't know sample size off the top of my head, do know it's significant. Any sample based survey will have some range of error, but we think we get in the ballpark.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
Cashman did a full rebuild without tearing everything down like every other team has to. If you think he's a hack I'd hate to see what you'd say about... any other GM that could replace him.
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Thread Nintendo Switch has been an overall positive for the market, says PlayStation executive
Cheers. Saved me the time. Ps4 and Xone are more direct competitors, although about 1 in 4 owners of each own both in the US. Switch is not directly competitive with either. It is growing the overall gaming pie. It is, from a market size perspective, it's own thing.
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Thread Nintendo Switch has been an overall positive for the market, says PlayStation executive
No. That's the point. The use cases and games for switch are very different. There's no evidence in the sales data that suggests one additional dollar spent on Switch is one less dollar spent on PS4/Xone.
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Thread MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni
Reading the Twitter replies on the Jay's post saying they should have just gone with a QO and taken the pick... Donaldson would have said yes to a QO so fast faces would have melted. Bell, Moseby and Barfield. What an outfield.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
Your guess is as good as mine on this one. Like you say, the big unknown is the possibility of an MK9. Definitely maybe? And thanks for the kind words. I appreciate it. We're always working on various pilot programs and tests. Fair.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
The iterative consoles are certainly having a big positive impact for both companies.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
It's doing real well. I guess because I play so much it wasn't personally a surprise. Maybe it should be. Perhaps personal bias seeped in here. Shrug.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
The has more detail for those that have criticism for the GI piece. Yeah, I don't see it either. Very much expect Sony to continue with status quo for the foreseeable future, but who knows.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
Oh hey this is a really fun question! Well, first, FORTNITE on like ALL of them. But for specific surprises not called Fortnite? PS4 - God of War. Complete outlier in both metacritic as well as sales performance. No game like it should sell this well when you look at the rest of the market. Absolutely separating itself in just about every way when it comes to sales performance. Never would have seen this level of performance coming. Truly remarkable. Honorable mention to Detroit: Become Human. Xbox One - PUBG - Some may call this not a surprise, but seeing this kind of game find big success on the consoles was a bit unexpected. Honorable mention: Xbox Game Pass Day 1 Games - All of the titles which have launched day 1 on Game Pass have exceeded my sales expectations. Switch - Mario Kart 8 - Top 10 YTD, no signs of slowing down at all. Not super surprising that it's an evergreen, but it's like evergreen+++. Honorable mention: every indie game coming to eShop. So yeah, Fortnite and God of War my biggest surprises so far. Cool question, cheers.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
I'll speak to a this question, although this isn't the real question you asked. Yep, the very strong 1H, which should extend through 2018, will make a VERY difficult 2019 comp year. I see many months next year showing declines, sometimes significant declines. It will be very difficult for next year's slates to match what's gone on this year. And trying to match Fortnite/PUBG's 1H? Woof. Will likely be rough. But that's next year's problem. I don't. But I'd be happy to be surprised. Launch month sales were well ahead of Heavy Rain. Haven't done the comp since. I'll take a look for next release. I see both making the top 10, but other titles should exceed. Fair points. The press release itself speaks to growth. The article translated that into sales. There is a distinction, as you point out. If the hardware sales for these platforms contributed to growth they would have been called out.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
The real takeaway here is that if only one of the >$100 platforms has experienced very strong growth and yet it has never led an individual month, while total hardware spending is at a 7 year high, that everything hardware must be doing pretty darn remarkably well.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
We are talking about growth. PS4 has led the market, it's called out every month. But it's not a growth driver this year. Not spin, facts.
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Thread NPD First Half 2018 Report: Xbox and NES/SNES Classic doing great, $19.5B spent, game rev up 43% YoY
If anyone has questions I'll be happy to answer what I can. Will be back in a couple hours and respond. The press release offers more detail, but yeah the Xbox One and SNES Classics are pointed out for growth. PS4 is the best selling hardware platform of the year. A bit lost in translation.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
The amount of folks suddenly concerned about others' applying for and opening a new account in order to take advantage of the All Access plan has certainly been something as well.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
Why does it need to be an alternative? The Switch addresses use cases the PS4/Xone can't. It allows on the go gaming of whatever, and in the living room play of the Nintendo 1st party lineup. It's a supplemental console for many, and a primary one for people that aren't interested in the game offerings on PS4/Xone. This hardware market isn't zero sum or either/or. Many people own multiple consoles/PC right now, Switch isn't fighting the same living room battle N64/Cube/Wii/Wii U did.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
By some of the logic in the last couple pages it seems that some of you would think that a company putting out the same game on multiple platforms would be proof that the company is competing against itself.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
Data suggest to me that Switch isn't directly competing with PS4/Xone to begin with so a lot of this... conversation... is coming from a flawed set of assumptions. Dont really see this changing either, Switch is already proven to be an incremental purchase for core gamers, now it needs to prove it can reach mass market non-console owning audience with Pokemon and initiatives like Labo, folks that are PS4/Xone rejectors.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
Devs at the big pubs, like everyone else, like hitting their bonus targets more than anything. And those bonus targets are usually around sales figures. And you're not selling the most to those with bleeding edge hardware. It's an important segment, sure, but it ain't everything.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
99% of the people I chat with on Twitter couldn't be nicer or more pleasant. I'm blessed. Lots of great people are interested in what we do and are awesome. But then there's that other 1% lol.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
I thought it would be GTAV given the promotion in the month. Octopath shredded every expectation. I thought it'd be top 10, maybe top 5 if it did real well.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
This kind of thing has been rumored since 2005. Makes a lot of sense, but not as easy to implement as one would think for lots of reasons. Would be cool, gotta wait and see if it's real this time.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
The billion dollar question with Switch is will efforts like Pokemon Go and Labo allow it to expand to mass market and kids. If so, Switch will be a juggernaut. If not, it'll still be a solid performer and sell well, but it'll always feel like a missed opportunity. So yeah, important to take some risks and try some things to expand the audience. In terms of risk/reward just about any effort here will be worth it. Yeah I can't speak to splits, sorry.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
I don't do fiscal projections, thankfully I'm not a financial analyst. My current projection is 5.9m US, +/- a million or so for calendar 2018. For a global extrap, that should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 18mish or so for the calendar year, again +/- a few million. But, like I said, very high range of error, and we have a consolidated window with both Smash and Pokemon at the end of the year, so anything could happen from shipment issues to retail not stocking enough units to weather to whatever that could impact the last 6 weeks of the year, making any precise forecasts for Switch in the calendar year less reasonable forecast and more prophetic announcement.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
I would just like to take a moment to point out what an epically bad take this is. I congratulate you on this, it's really difficult to come up with a take that is bad at this scale.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
If we had universal digital coverage, this would be an issue. However, in the monthly release we report only on digital full game sales from a publisher set that includes most of the major publishers outside of Bethesda, but few of the smaller pubs and very little indie coverage outside of Psyonix. So, no DLC/MTX is reported, and only a subset of digital full game sales are reported. In our total market projections that we present in other products such as the Games Market Dynamics report we know the actual digital market value size significantly exceeds what we report on a monthly basis. So yes, an individual purchase may be potentially counted twice, however given the scale of the digital marketplace we are extremely confident that we're not overestimating the market size.
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Thread NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console
So I'll answer the question you're not asking, heh. The demographics for Switch are very different than they were for Wii/Wii U/3DS. Switch has a much older demographic, and a much more core gamer focused one. Cross-ownership with PS4/Xone is also very high. So, at the moment at least, Switch has an audience that makes comparing the trends between it and historic Nintendo platforms difficult and perhaps not reasonable? The data suggests, to me at least, that Switch is going to have a unique sales curve, and, well, basically a unique everything else as well. I think you can see that in the wide disparity of estimates coming from everywhere about how Switch is going to do longer term. You have very conservative estimates out there, and extremely aggressive ones. This is because the data is inconclusive at the moment, and there is an absolutely massive range of forecast error driven by the uncertainty and lack of benchmark data. So expectations for Switch HW and SW is the real catch. There's little/no consistency here. A new PS or Xbox releases, everyone kinda knows what to expect and forecasts are in a relatively narrow range. Switch has been an entirely different animal. While this does make it interesting and fun, it leads to wildly different levels of expectations depending on who you talk to.