kswiston's Posts

kswiston (18246330)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $1.139B Bohemian Rhapsody - $861M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $515M How to Train Your Dragon 3 - $275M Alita: Battle Angel - $263M Glass - $241M The Lego Movie 2 - $137M

kswiston (18246874)

Illumination keeps production budgets low and spends the savings on marketing.

kswiston (18027804)

I hide them in the banners now.

kswiston (18011761)

My laptop is refusing to boot thanks to Win 10 updates. New thread will be late.

kswiston (18014471)

Alita seems too expensive to actually do well, but if it can pass 400M, it would be in that "could be a lot worse" territory. Domestic looks like 80-100M to me depending on legs at the moment.

kswiston (18014329)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Alita: Battle Angel - $131M Happy Death Day 2 U - $25M Aquaman - $1.131B Bohemian Rhapsody - $854M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $505M Mary Poppins Returns - $342M Creed 2 - $210M Glass - $235M How to Train Your Dragon 3 - $172M Escape Room - $115M The Lego Movie 2 - $97M The Wandering Earth (in China) - $560M in 13 days

kswiston (18014682)

Death Day 2U's 5-day weekend is only a little above the first film's opening day. Not what one wants out of a sequel.

kswiston (17764999)

Japan opened to $3.7M this weekend. Aquaman might hit $15M there. Japan largely doesn't care. In other Japanese box office news, Bohemian Rhapsody just passed $100M in Japan.

kswiston (17763251)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $1.120B Bohemian Rhapsody - $844M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $494M Bumblebee - $458M Mary Poppins Returns - $336M Creed 2 - $208M Glass - $222M How to Train Your Dragon 3 - $139M Escape Room - $108M The Lego Movie - $53M Alita: Battle Angel - $32M The Wandering Earth (in China) - $298M in 6 days

kswiston (17739349)

Chinese box office from Lunar New Year to tomorrow (Tues-Sun) will be around $850M. Biggest week in domestic box office history was a bit more than $500M when TFA came out during the 2015 holidays.

kswiston (17736315)

kswiston (17733939)

Lego is dead. Friday was less than $6.5M without previews. Best case scenario this weekend is 30M. Tracking was 45-50M.

kswiston (17530914)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $1.107B Bohemian Rhapsody - $822M Deadpool 2 - $766M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $487M Bumblebee - $455M A Star is Born - $416M Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse - $347M Mary Poppins Returns - $329M Creed 2 - $202M Glass - $199M Escape Room - $96M How to Train Your Dragon 3 - $84M

kswiston (17531094)

Aquaman will pass Suicide Squad and BvS soon to become the second biggest DCEU film domestically. It obviously isn't catching Wonder Woman in the US/Canada, but still a fantastic performance. Creed 2 finally passes the $200M mark. They could probably round out a trilogy, and then call it a day. The Upside is the surprise of the year so far (domestically). Shitty reviews don't seem to matter as it makes its way to $100M+ domestic.

kswiston (17531125)

Deadline has it at a mid $40M opening.

kswiston (2418713)

Max Landis has said some very questionable things in the past regarding women and his fame, so this wouldn't be that much of a surprise.

kswiston (17414709)

My parents bought their first home, a townhouse, for $27k a bit less than 40 years ago. A similar house here would be more like $300-400k. Base wage inflation has only been about 4x in that period, so we need to pay 3x as much for the same thing in adjusted dollars. Hard to do when many also have large student loan debts.

kswiston (17299788)

Atlantis > Camelot

kswiston (17292834)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $1.091B Bohemian Rhapsody - $817M Deadpool 2 - $761M (edited version opened to $22M in China) Ralph Breaks the Internet - $473M Bumblebee - $439M Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse - $338M Mary Poppins Returns - $319M Creed 2 - $191M Glass - $163M Dragon Ball Super: Broly - $99M Escape Room - $76M

kswiston (17170294)

6th. And 5 of the 6 were since 2009. John Singleton was first for Boyz n the Hood. Then nothing until Lee Daniels for Precious.

kswiston (17123489)

I seriously doubt it was even within a magnitude of equal numbers, but some white people in the south did get lynched in the process of the KKK and other groups oppressing black (then Republican) voters. A lot of terrorist tactics were used to uphold white supremacy during the reconstruction era. Of course, current GOP continue to try and claim kinship to a past version of their party that shared none of their beliefs.

kswiston (17055103)

Tracking for Glass was 50-70M. Split opened to $40M two years ago, so not a big stretch to expect more from the crossover sequel. Do you mean the flop of the year thread?

kswiston (17050149)

Next weekend, Aquaman passes TDKR to become the new DC superhero high water mark for worldwide grosses.

kswiston (17049894)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Glass - $89M Aquaman - $1.063B Ralph Breaks the Internet - $455M Bumblebee - $412M Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse - $323M Mary Poppins Returns - $306M Creed 2 - $175M Dragon Ball Super: Broly - $78M Escape Room - $54M

kswiston (17050304)

Based on the PTA, yes.

kswiston (17050568)

Yes. Extremely high given how few showings most venues were giving Broly during the weekend.

kswiston (16997794)

At 20 you have a lot of time. I know people who dropped out of high school in Grade 10 or 11 who got more serious about bettering themselves around that age, and eventually ended up with a PhD or professional degree by their early-mid 30s. But you have to make the effort to change things, and not make the mistake of waiting for that change to come to you. It usually doesn't.

kswiston (16997329)

Even if you don' have kids all that young, you still have a good chunk of life left when they become independent. I will be 50 when my daughter goes to college. Health permitting, there's still another 25-30 years after that before I start reaching the nursing home years. Pretty close to the length of time I lived before kids.

kswiston (16978839)

There does seem to be a myth at high school ages that girls can't really hurt boys when they hit them. However, even in cases where the boyfriend is bigger, some girls know how to throw a punch. Women will always be at greater risk on average for serious violence due to size differences and I don't think that this result is relevant to that, but hitting should not be tolerated by any partner. Ditto with emotional abuse, which school definitely didn't do enough to address when I was a teen many years ago.

kswiston (16950517)

Mortal Engines might get outgrossed by a DBZ film on a limited engagement in 1/3 the venues.

kswiston (16826976)

It's apparently a film about dog racism.

kswiston (16828018)

Both Furious 7 and Aquaman had huge bumps over the previous film featuring the same characters But Avatar and Titanic are still the top 2 worldwide of all time, so obviously Cameron goes unmatched for a while.

kswiston (16827283)

Japan would have to be pretty big by superhero film standards for $400M to happen. That is the only territory left. $390M is a bit easier, but too early to tell yet. Domestic will end up somewhere between $180-200M depending on how strong Spider-verse remains through the rest of this month. I don't think that Glass will hit it very hard next weekend, but it might cause a venue count dent.

kswiston (16827036)

Aquaman was projected to be Number 1 through studio tracking going into the weekend, but I think that tracking continues to underestimate Kevin Hart's draw. EDIT: But I guess that steal isn't the right word. fixed.

kswiston (16826810)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $1.020B Bohemian Rhapsody - >$751M (waiting on the overseas update) Ralph Breaks the Internet - $434M Bumblebee - $365M Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse - $302M Mary Poppins Returns - $288M Creed 2 - $166M

kswiston (16827367)

Not this year. Also, the true domination has been post Avengers, I think. That's when everything started routinely making over $600M worldwide. Now it seems like $800M+ worldwide is becoming the superhero standard, with $600M (still higher than Iron Man 1) being relegated to Ant-Man tier films.

kswiston (16797440)

The Holiday slate was actually pretty decent. Aquaman was the only one demonstrating four quadrant appeal though.

kswiston (16797019)

As of yesterday, Aquaman was $11M shy of the $1B mark, making today the day that it reaches that milestone. This is the first DC film to reach $1B since The Dark Knight Rises in 2012, and will actually be the first film from a studio other than Disney/Universal to hit that mark since WB released the first Hobbit film about 6 years ago. Given the continued momentum of Aquaman, it is pretty likely that the film will end its run over The Dark Knight Rises ($1.085B), setting a new high water mark for the label. Who would have guessed?

kswiston (16683723)

The international trailer for A Dog's Way Home is worse than the one we got locally. And by that, I mean it shows more of the film. Youtube it.

kswiston (16677948)

A reminder that A Dog's Purpose made more in China than Rogue One. Which was a crazier stat back before Star Wars died in China. Disney would be thrilled with R1 cash in China now.

kswiston (16638731)

They seem to be getting over that with the live action tv stuff.

kswiston (16635944)

I think that newer estimates were 200M. But it looks like that much, if not more.

kswiston (16635578)

2018 Superhero films (including Incredibles and Spider-verse) will end up over $8.3B worldwide, split between 8 films. The previous record for releases in a single year was around 4.75B.

kswiston (16635855)

It was 4th worldwide. Titanic Return of the King Dead Man's Chest The Dark Knight

kswiston (16635351)

kswiston (16634866)

Aquaman without China is still going to be bigger than most superhero films without China. Excepting the $1B MCU films and some older stuff (Nolan Dark Knights, Raimi Spider-man 3 and maybe 1)

kswiston (16632603)

kswiston (16633843)

kswiston (16629027)

Honestly, outside of the Avengers stuff, I don't think that the distinction between solo and group films means anything. It just seems like an excuse to discount GotG and stuff with guest stars to form patterns that I am not sure are all that relevant. Logan made about as much as the rest of the X-FIlms, and both Deadpools were bigger. Nearly everything out of the MCU/DCEU since Avengers 1 has been bigger than the Fox team films. There isn't all that much backing up the idea that multiple heroes is a draw over 1. The Avengers is set up differently, so that is the exception. If we use a comic book analogue, they are the line wide events that shake up the status quo (even if superficially), vs something like Wolverine appearing in Amazing Spider-man for the month.

kswiston (16629705)

I am not trying to refute your larger point, but you forgot Age of Ultron. 459M domestic. Almost 1.2B outside of China.

kswiston (16626477)

You can't cherry pick territories to make an argument though. Domestically, Aquaman will do well, but not be anything all that special either. So either way, I don't think that you can combine the two to make sweeping statements.

kswiston (16627304)

I wouldn't expect amazing legs, but an $18M start is probably good for $40-50M domestic. Which for a $9M film would be sequel territory.

kswiston (16627115)

Homecoming was coming off a shit sandwich, so Far From Home's business next summer will be interesting to watch. If it goes up significantly, Homecoming could be a Batman Begins type deal (to a lesser extent. Not expecting 600M domestic for FFH). If not, maybe a section of people are getting bored of Spider-man films. Even Spider-man 3 would have been around $450M by today's standards. It was the biggest film of the year domestically in 2007.

kswiston (16626164)

Wonder Woman made less than all of 2017 and 2018 MCU except for Ant Man and the Wasp, so that's not the best example.

kswiston (16630272)

Secondary schools do a terrible job teaching basic skills that all adults will need in life. Hence, you have STEM majors in college who can't manage a credit card or student loans. And a lot of people never learn. Their pay gets larger, but their ability to handle or understand their money is as bad as ever.

kswiston (16632374)

I find that if you have one of the European names that have analogues in almost every country, people from those countries will try to use their local variant, regardless of the variant that you were given at birth.

kswiston (16597074)

No

kswiston (16596458)

It made around $39M worldwide this weekend, and Japan could easily be the biggest overseas territory if it catches on there, so probably quite a bit. This weekend slowed down more than expected domestically, but a $175M domestic finish will probably be on the lower end of things. Poppins can still hit $400M. Lots of things are going to get doubled by Bohemian Rhapsody though. That film refuses to stop overseas. It might hit $800M.

kswiston (16595975)

Aquaman had an excellent hold worldwide, making almost $87M this weekend. Down 38% from last weekend, despite last weekend being inflated by holidays. It is now looking probable that Aquaman will pass TDKR to become the biggest DC film of all time, and WB's second biggest film ever after Deathly Hallows Pt 2.

kswiston (16596022)

It will be the highest grossing film for almost everyone in the film.

kswiston (16595461)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $941M Bohemian Rhapsody - $744M The Grinch - $497M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $405M Bumblebee - $289M Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse - $275M Mary Poppins Returns - $258M Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $170M

kswiston (16541748)

Over 60M is already good though.

kswiston (16544084)

Oh man. Don't start that derail :p

kswiston (16544881)

I think that it has a pretty good chance at winning that makeup award as well, actually.

kswiston (16543990)

Black Panther got nominations from both the PGA and SAG now. DGA noms are announced next Tuesday, but I think that a best picture nomination at the Academy Awards is nearly locked now. It has hit all of the milestone indicators.

kswiston (16540920)

Bumblebee is beating those 40M opening projections for China. It might hit 55M if Saturday is strong. Bumblebee murdered Spider-verse in the process though. Down 82% from last Friday, and the full weekend will be even worse, since Sunday was hugely inflated last week. This weekend will be a bit over 1M. Last weekend was over 8M I believe.

kswiston (16527818)

I didn't spend much time in Lima itself, but Cuzco is beautiful, and Machu Picchu should definitely be on your agenda. Just watch your possessions. I know people who had backpacks or purses snatched in Lima. But I guess that advice holds for most huge cities outside of a few very wealthy ones.

kswiston (16527363)

Avengers: Endgame would be on there. I don't know beyond that. I haven't missed an MCU film in theatres since my daughter was a newborn, but if I could only see 3 films for the year, I would have to pass on Cap Marvel, Far From Home, and the other superhero films releasing next year.

kswiston (16512991)

Looks like you guys have a new top grosser worldwide on Friday. Aquaman continues to put up impressive overseas numbers. I don't think that passing TDKR is a given, but it isn't off the table either. I was hoping for the film to succeed, because I want the DC superhero B and C-Tier stuff to have a shot on the big screen. In that regard, audiences deciding that the problem with the DCEU was Batman and Superman, and that all of the others are still interesting enough to spend cash on, is about the best case scenario.

kswiston (16516740)

It' not impossible that Aquaman gets dethroned by that dog movie. Edit: or the Upside I guess. If one of them overperforms, they could stop that 4th Aquaman weekend. Aquaman will be down to high teens or low 20s next weekend.

kswiston (16513314)

Joker might not get a release in China. Next year is packed, and they might decide that it fails their moral guidelines.

kswiston (16513102)

Yes. But Japan usually isn't that major for superheroes. 20M would be really good there.

kswiston (16515990)

Over 90%. It would have to drop 65% this weekend to put that in doubt.There was talk on negotiating a better percentage. But then Trump happened.

kswiston (16512533)

Some school boards are still on winter break, so Poppins and all of the animated films had better holds from Tuesday than the rest. Looks like Aquaman will pass Ragnarok and Venom worldwide before the weekend. GotG2 goes down Thurs or Friday morning. BvS might be Friday as well. Homecoming, and Spider-Man 3 on Sat/Sun. After that we wait a couple of weeks for it to pass The Dark Knight.

kswiston (16504512)

Almost every big budget superhero since The Avengers has outgrossed Solo. The one exception was Fant4stic.

kswiston (16494494)

I don't think that you can draw any conclusions from China. And on that note, people are getting a little carried away. Outside of China, Aquaman is doing solid numbers, but not really anything outside of the norm for recent superhero films. I am not sure how we have gotten to the conclusion that DC has a higher ceiling than Marvel based on a film that is going to do similar or lower business than 6 of the past 8 MCU films, outside of one territory that has seen superhero films blow up this year for whatever reason.

kswiston (16494221)

Glass is a $20M film.

kswiston (16492072)

In the past, the box office community has had a thread where we predict and discuss the big budget films that we think will fail to connect with audiences in the coming year. I don't think that anyone kept the tradition going last year on Era, so I decided to throw something up for 2019. Last year had some fierce competition within Disney, between the massively overbudget and underperforming Solo, A Wrinkle in Time, and The Nutcracker and the Four Realms. However, none of them had what it takes to keep the ultimate crown. Pending a few outstanding international territory releases, the 2018 championship is now down to two films: VS. This year is packed with tentpole hopefuls, perhaps more than most recent years. However, with finite audience money, and some huge films like Avengers: Endgame and The Lion King soaking up box office dollars, not everything is going to land. Here are some of the big budget (or potentially big budget in some cases) films releasing in the next 12 months: The Kid Who Would be King The Lego Movie 2 Alita: Battle Angel How to Train Your Dragon 3 Captain Marvel Dumbo Shazam! Hellboy Avengers: Endgame Detective Pikachu Aladdin Godzilla King of Monsters Dark Phoenix Secret Life of Pets 2 Men in Black International Toy Story 4 Spider-Man: Far From Home The Lion King Once Upon a Time in Hollywood New Mutants Hobbs and Shaw Artemis Fowl Angry Birds Movie 2 Angel Has Fallen IT: Chapter 2 Spies in Disguise Gemini Man Joker (reportedly mid budget) The Addams Family Charlie's Angels Terminator Midway Sonic the Hedgehog Kingsman 3 Frozen 2 Jumanji sequel Cats Star Wars Ep IX 1917 The Call of the Wild There will probably be other films with a substantial budget (>$70M) that I am either forgetting, or haven't been titled yet, but that will give you an idea of what is coming out. Which do you see landing with a crater? Which films that others think are destined to fail do you see being a surprise hit (Like The Meg this past year)?

kswiston (16484199)

The film had a 96% second day drop and an 83% third day drop. Day 3 was 0.68% of Day 1. It would be like The Force Awakens making $120M on Friday, $5M on Saturday, and $820k on Sunday. And then less than 130M total.

kswiston (16484290)

The film is successful. It is just funny to see something get a 1.1x opening day multiplier. BvS is the no legs domestic poster child and that at least did 4x its opening day.

kswiston (16484335)

Yes. The marketing lied on purpose.

kswiston (16487918)

Paddington fans had to see their beloved 100% fresh bear outgrossed by Peter Rabbit, so cut them some slack.

kswiston (16478986)

2018 will have had 5 films hit $1B once Aquaman gets there. 4 of them superhero films.

kswiston (16479506)

First non Disney/Universal since The Hobbit 1.

kswiston (16479919)

They can afford to take some time I guess. Aquaman's sequel would probably be 2022

kswiston (16472853)

Aquaman hitting a billion is nearly locked I think. It would need some terrible drops soon to miss it.

kswiston (16473067)

I think that he means the performances themselves, which I agree with. The romantic story arc was fine/standard for these films, but Momoa and Heard didn't really sell it. But people are coming for the crazy undersea stuff and human eye candy. Not believable romance.

kswiston (16471917)

Aquaman might be past TF4 in local currency. The Chinese Yuan is a bit weaker now than in 2014. And I haven't seen a worldwide update for Aquaman, but it is for sure in the 800Ms

kswiston (16471484)

The Last Jedi made another 81M past this Tuesday last year. Given the release slate, I think that Aquaman is more or less locked for 300M now. It will be interesting to see if it can leg it out past Deadpool 2 to steal 5th place for 2018 releases. I think that Mary Poppins is mostly getting older adults and families. With the other two getting more of the 15-35 demo.

kswiston (16471055)

kswiston (16460837)

is going to do another contest. Most of us sucked at predicting the top 5 last year. Between Black Panther exploding and Solo bombing, Everyone messed something up

kswiston (16450702)

IGN just threw out fantasy numbers. Just the films that they predicted were over 10B combined. 2019 would be 13-14B if that was the case.

kswiston (16445294)

kswiston (16428311)

Good to see that we didn't lose you with the burial of the Divergent series. Welcome back!

kswiston (16428103)

This weekend was inflated by the holidays, but I am still expecting around 900M by next weekend. Maybe a bit under if I am overestimating weekday holds again.

kswiston (16427972)

I think that 1B is looking good. This weekend was 140M worldwide, and there is only 250M left to go.

kswiston (16428280)

Hard to say. We still have Japan and Italy left to open. Not expecting a ton there, but that's still 20M on the low end. Reaching TDKR will probably be hard with how far that film is ahead domestically.

kswiston (16426624)

Aquaman's second weekend was within 1% of The Last Jedi's third weekend domestically (which was the corresponding weekend last year). TLJ made about $103M more, so Aquaman needs slightly better legs in January to break 300M domestic.

kswiston (16407594)

Unless Japan is pretty huge, I don't see 400M as being particularly likely. Most territories are going to come back to earth soon with the holidays wrapping up this week. China is mostly done as well. 400M is going to require at least 225M internationally. Maybe closer to 250M.

kswiston (16397046)

Agreed. Locking this while a fresh thread is started.

kswiston (16396652)

kswiston (16397344)

The thread was rebooted about a minute before this one was posted:

kswiston (16394829)

Where I expected Aquaman to be worldwide. Australia came out big to support their boy Wan.

kswiston (16393186)

kswiston (16397150)

This is a reboot of a thread by . All of their OP content has been copied over, so credit goes to them. New projects so maybe multiple games? No platforms explicitly confirmed yet but the PS logo is a big indicator that it's coming to at least PS4. That doesn't mean it's exclusive.

kswiston (16397240)

kswiston (16398748)

Too bad the rest of the world doesn't care. China is getting close to 45% of the entire international take. Only Brazil and Japan are left to open from the major territories.

kswiston (16399090)

That list hasn't been updated for this week. Aquaman is 7th, on its way to being 5th. Fantastic Beasts is 10th. EDIT: This has to be the first year in a while where all 6 major studios landed at least 1 film in the Top 10.

kswiston (16396142)

Pretty much this. No one outside of the UK really cares about Mary Poppins overseas out of the territories it has opened in. However, it still has Australia left to open in, and Japan is pretty big on musicals. It should pass $150M internationally, and if Japan breaks out, $200M is possible. Mary Poppins has grossed about $54M in the past week. Combined with domestic, I'd guess a $350-400M worldwide finish. Maybe a bit higher if legs are really good.

kswiston (16395635)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $749M Bohemian Rhapsody - $703M Fantastic Beasts 2 - $627M The Grinch - $469M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $350M Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse - $213M Mary Poppins Returns - $173M Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $166M

kswiston (16396213)

EDIT: too slow this time! I added it to the OP first because I was hoping to avoid a double post.

kswiston (16373764)

All of the side quests can be finished in post game after a certain point. So not really.

kswiston (16373898)

The game is balanced for normal. You might find it easy to start, but if you don't overlevel, challenge picks up. It is easy to not overlevel since you can run around almost every encounter.

kswiston (16370499)

I think low 50s looks right. Aquaman had large previews, so last weekend without Thursday or Amazon sneaks was around 59M.

kswiston (16369991)

Saturday is going to be about the same size as Friday. Sunday will only drop 10-20% for most films.

kswiston (16372094)

Not counting Pixar, which is really the only animation studio interested pushing CGI animation technology in every film they do. Even the not great films like A Good Dinosaur have some amazing technical feats.

kswiston (16371877)

I feel like Marvel films typically have stronger acting but take less risks with the plot or out there set pieces (not true for every film, but true with many of them). And that combination does slightly better with critics. Which is enough to slide more reviews over that 6/10 mark. Other than Black Panther, most MCU films don't have high averages. Usually 6.5-7.5/10. Aquaman is sitting at 6/10. Compare that to Spider-verse, which has an 8.8/10 avg.

kswiston (16369652)

Don't expect anything to get much of a Saturday bump. Friday has holiday inflation.

kswiston (16369025)

kswiston (16368847)

JL officially back to being the lowest grossing DCEU film

kswiston (16368463)

kswiston (16368764)

kswiston (16370444)

Batman and Spider-man clearly have the most potential, everything else being equal. But we are still more than 2 years away from the 20th anniversary of Raimi's Spider-Man, and we are deep into our third take on the character. People want something novel.

kswiston (16370555)

Nolan Batman isn't part of the DCEU. Aquaman probably won't top TDKR. It could be their first $1B film in 6 years though. They haven't hit that mark since the first Hobbit.

kswiston (16369962)

Aquaman is going to be the top grossing film in the DCEU.

kswiston (16368421)

That is life expectancy at birth. If you have already made it to 74, life expectancy is around 85.

kswiston (16362893)

Deadline updated their projections: 51.6M for Aquaman, 31.9M for Poppins, 20.5M for Bumblebee, and 19M for Spider-verse are their weekend estimates now

kswiston (16350015)

Top Aquaman territories:: $249M: $20.3M: $19.2M: $18.3M: $15.1M: $14.1M: $13.9M: $10.9M: $10.1M: $8.8M Australia is off to a good start too

kswiston (16346583)

Based on what we know about some of those titles I would guess that Bronze was 250-500k, silver was 500k-1M, gold was some range over 1M, and Platinum was the multimillion sellers. Pillars 1 definitely sold more up front at full price, and more in that first year.

kswiston (16345942)

I had a lot of fun with my PoE2 playthrough back in May. Personally, I thought that it improved on the things that I disliked about Pillars 1 (which I quit after 20ish hours) quite a bit. It's a shame that so few people bought the sequel.

kswiston (16345764)

Mary Poppins has a pretty good shot at topping 30M this weekend, which would put its total past 100M. Finishing around what Cinderella did domestically is feasible.

kswiston (16334039)

Aquaman and Spider-verse are both going to start wrapping up quickly in China as we hit January.

kswiston (16322753)

Probably closer to 750M. It should go into the weekend with around 625M. I am thinking at least 100M worldwide from Fri-Sun.

kswiston (16321479)

Deadline weekend projection: They have 54M for Aquaman, 25M for Mary Poppins, 21M for Bumblebee, 16M for Spider-verse, and 9M for Holmes and Watson

kswiston (16301696)

I can see this going terribly for them. It's one thing to start off completely restricted like China or North Korea. But Russians have been pretty involved on the internet since the start. Edit: at least in the WWW era after the USSR fell.

kswiston (16304187)

kswiston (16301365)

It was 488M after this weekend, but made another 69M in the past 2 days. Aquaman is probably looking at at least another 90M domestically between today and Sunday. Probably something similar overseas. Holiday box office ramps up quick. I was looking at comparisons with JL and other DCEU films, and I think that I will hop on the $1B train. It isn't locked, but if Aquaman misses 1B, it won't be by a ton. I think closer to 1B than 900M is looking probable.

kswiston (16300086)

China is clearly boosting things a lot, but most territories are still in their first or second week, so that is still good. China is in Week 3. Aquaman was at 488M on Sunday, so it grossed almost 70M in the past two days.

kswiston (16295909)

So, with domestic almost certainly flirting with $300M, if not outright passing it, I think that we have enough data to say that Aquaman will pass BvS worldwide. 900M looks like the lower end of things. We will know this weekend if $1B is likely.

kswiston (16294497)

kswiston (16295304)

Bumblebee will pass 100M, and have a shot at grossing its production budget domestically. Still low by Franchise standards, but it has to pay for Bay.

kswiston (16294565)

It has a 0% and 2 out of 10 average so far on Rotten Tomatoes.

kswiston (16294242)

Disney, Universal and Fox already released weekend actuals. The other 3 big studios may just keep estimates until after new years. However, I wouldn't expect much of an adjustment. Unlike Sunday, where most of the shows for the day haven't even started when the weekend estimates go out, these are going to be based on all of the actual electronic data from the big chains. And a projection from the smaller independent exhibitioners.

kswiston (16294369)

Aquaman scores the sixth biggest Xmas gross of all time, behind the three Star Wars films, Avatar, and Sherlock Holmes (which opened on Xmas on a year when the Holiday was on a Friday).

kswiston (16294115)

kswiston (16293886)

It didn't bomb. It didn't make much money either. Global total was about 200M on a budget that was around 75M. One of those projects that will probably break even at some point.

kswiston (16288010)

Spider-verse didn't beat projections. Rth said 6.9 on Saturday night, which is why I said 17-18M for the weekend. I ballparked a 15% drop on Sunday which would have been $17.5M if the Saturday was correct. But it wasn't. We got 16.7M as the weekend estimate on Sun morning, with a 10% estimate for Sunday's drop. That was again revised slightly down to 16.6M on Monday. Bumblebee has been ahead every day.

kswiston (16288084)

That one was. The rest were pretty close. West coast Saturday shows weren't even done when that projection was made. It isn't going to be 100%.

kswiston (16287103)

So now that we have a rough Xmas number to work with, my guesses: Aquaman will end up a close to or over 200M by Sunday. Unless I am completely off base with this, and Aquaman suddenly craters this weekend, I don't see how it misses 300M domestic. Mary Poppins is having pretty good holiday boosts, and should hit at least 95M by this Sunday. I'm thinking at least 175M domestic, with a shot at 200M is where things are looking. Bumblebee is probably going to be around 70M after this weekend. It is going to pass 100M domestic. We will see if it can leg over The Last Knight to not be the lowest grossing film in the franchise domestically. Spider-verse's number is the most disappointing of the bunch, but not really bad either. It will be very close to either side of 100M by Sunday. Lego Batman was $133M by its third weekend, so even with the rest of the holidays, I am not sure that Spider-verse can catch up at this point.

kswiston (16288223)

Man of Steel was probably too early to have had a shot. Comic films make more on average now worldwide, and MoS was coming off of a lot of mediocre to bad Superman films. Suicide Squad did amazingly. Not sure why anyone would have expected higher. if it got Aquaman's China gross (instead of $0 there), it would have broken $1B. BvS should have been over $1B though. It made close to $425M worldwide in that first weekend. Interest was there. Until people saw it.

kswiston (16287227)

The sequel will happen. Not sure about the spin-off. I could see that being put on hold until they see how Spider-verse 2 goes.

kswiston (16286827)

Early Xmas Day projections from BoT: Aquaman - $21.8M Mary Poppins - $11.3M Bumblebee - $8.8M Spider-verse - $5.7M

kswiston (16286410)

kswiston (16276808)

Deadline reported 6.1M for Poppins, which is well over the 4.85M using my 40% typical drop from yesterday's sample projection. Tomorrow will give us a clear idea of how things will go with it.

kswiston (16266876)

Which tracking are you talking about?

kswiston (16267006)

Also, Merry Christmas Box Office Era. Thanks for being the best behaved Sales Era community on most weeks. Star Wars weeks being a bit iffy :p

kswiston (16260686)

Pretty sure that Etc has fought over the best way to wipe one's ass. So no.

kswiston (16258264)

For those of you who haven't followed along in past holiday seasons, and are wondering why everything is bombing, here is a demonstrative projection on how the holidays help. Mary Poppins grossed just over 8M on Sunday as part of its 23.5M three day opening and 32M five day opening. People are right that a gross of that nature would typically be terrible. However, we are heading into the holidays. The expected drop for today is going to be 40% or so. Christmas day itself has no huge openers, so expect the the same gross as Sunday or better. Being quite conservative, let's say $13M combined. Around 45M total. Wednesday and Thursday are typically even stronger than Xmas (especially for films with family appeal), so at least 16M, putting the the total in the low 60s. When Christmas falls on a Tuesday or Wednesday, films can often stay flat or increase on their post xmas weekend. Worst case scenario here is going to be -20% for something like Mary Poppins with no previews inflating last Fri-Sun. Let's say roughly 20M, with a total just over 80M now (through Dec 30th). New Years Eve in this configuration is stronger than Christmas Eve, and most films will make more next Monday than today. New Year's Day is typically not as strong as Xmas. Averaged out, let's call a typical scenario -10% for NYE+NYD over Xmas Eve + Xmas. This is roughly $12M more. Kids start going back to school after that, so the weekdays drop rapidly. Lets say $5M for Wed/Thurs Jan 2/3. Down at least 2/3rds. An expected drop in the following weekend, with a few opening films, would be 45%. In our case $11M. So to add things up using rounded numbers: Dec 19-23: 32M Dec 24-25: 13M Dec 26-27: 16M Dec 28-30: 20M Dec 31-Jan 1: 12M Jan 2-3: 5M Jan 4-6: 11M Total after third weekend: $109M After which, you would expect another $20M+ depending on late legs. Keeping in mind this is a scenario where Mary Poppins just had mediocre holds all holiday and does not break out at all.

kswiston (16256567)

It looks like Aquaman has a shot at topping BvS. Depends on domestic and overseas holds during the holiday. International without China should pass 300M. Hard to say by how much yet. China will be 275M+. I would be shocked if domestic is under JL. So that's already 800M at worst. No clue about MiB. How much of that franchise is the property, and how much was Will Smith? Hemsworth and Thompson don't carry much in the way of a box office draw on their own, but if the film is good and people like the concept, I guess that it could make decent money. I assume it is a lot cheaper than MiB3.

kswiston (16256348)

It would be pretty funny if every Justice League member got a DCEU solo film that grossed more than Justice League. We are going to be 3 for 3 with Man of Steel, Wonder Woman, and Aquaman.

kswiston (16256709)

Speaking of Mary Poppins Yesterday's estimate was $1.3M too low

kswiston (16256214)

Aquaman gathering strength again in China will unfortunately put a cap on how big Spider-verse can get (since showings are going to start flowing back to Aquaman). But if it can leg out to at least 2x its opening, that would still be a solid result. Superhero films often miss that mark.

kswiston (16255828)

kswiston (16255437)

Or a good idea if this was still 2005.

kswiston (16254672)

Yes it is. Because nothing in the modern era of film has performed like The Greatest Showman, regardless of the genre. Opening weekend was 5% of the total, and it launched ultra wide.

kswiston (16254948)

If we don't get early projections this afternoon, probably on Wednesday.

kswiston (16254343)

People don't realize how leggy The Greatest Showman was. Its 2nd-6th weekends all made more than its first. If Spider-verse made its same 35M opening, but had Greatest Showman legs, its domestic total would be around Infinity War's. Poppins or Bumblebee would clear 400M with greatest Showman legs. Aquaman would clear 1B domestic.

kswiston (16254091)

Greatest Showman has the second best legs of any film to debut in over 2000 theatres. The only film that had better legs was Titanic. At over 3000 venues opening weekend, Greatest Showman is tops of all time. Using it as a pattern for other films is probably misguided.

kswiston (16250705)

Aquaman passes 500M worldwide today. I am expecting it to be over Justice League's worldwide total by next Sunday. Possibly well over. I would have to look at overseas comparisons for late Dec.

kswiston (16250234)

Mary Poppins and Bumblebee will probably go up a bit too.

kswiston (16250097)

kswiston (16244098)

WDAS definitely did. Pixar staff helped transition it into what it's been this decade.

kswiston (16233902)

Mary Poppins will end up doing well enough to at least not lose money. It's no going to be a collossal hit, but they already set a record for highest domestic studio gross in a calendar year, beating their own 2016 record. Even with all of the flops, Disney averaged over 300M domestic a film.

kswiston (16230709)

This weekend was cumulatively less than 10M smaller than Memorial Day weekend was. Maybe less than 5M smaller when actuals come in. Poppins had 150M in competition this weekend vs 98M in competition for Solo on memorial day weekend. The next two weeks vs the first two weeks of June are no question at all. So, you are basically arguing that some people decided that Solo was skippable, because they already went to the cinema once or twice in recent weeks, but are assuming that the same wouldn't be the case now.

kswiston (16230139)

Aquaman will still beat Justice League. 300M domestic is not completely off the table yet (but would require really strong weekday grosses this week). Holiday legs. Also, some of the more glaring dialogue delivery issues in Aquaman wouldn't be as apparent to people in non-English countries, so I can see why it is big in Asia. It is shot well, and has cool visuals.

kswiston (16229763)

Infinity War came out a full month before. Jurassic World a full month after. Incredibles 2 was in its 4th weekened. So it was mostly just Deadpool 2. If people really wanted to see Solo, there was time to do so between those other huge films

kswiston (16237452)

The best visual scene was the flarelight dive into the deep with all of the trench monsters swarming. That whole sequence was cool. It's too bad that the acting in this was so mediocre. Reminded me of Venom, without a Tom Hardy perfomance thrown in. The flirting scenes between Arthur and Mera were particularly bad.

kswiston (16225901)

kswiston (16226002)

Looks like the Saturdays floating around on BoT last night were all a few hundred thousand too high. Which explains why these estimates are all about 1M lower than what I was posting last night. Poppins and Bumblebee are estimated to drop 20-21%, so they may increase some. Aquaman has an estimated 17% drop. I was using 15%. If it changes, it probably will not be by much. Spider-verse is using a 10% drop and many be overestimated. That early Saturday was off by quite a bit.

kswiston (16225806)

kswiston (16225698)

kswiston (16225765)

Depends on the Saturday numbers. Studios could be going conservative on Sunday's drop, which was 10-20% the last time that Dec 23rd was Sunday

kswiston (16225540)

kswiston (16225631)

kswiston (16228914)

Incredibles 2 and Teen Titans Go to the Movies also released. People seem willing enough to go see original Superheroes like The incredibles or Big Hero 6 (which might as well be original with how much was changed from the comic property no one but Slayven knew about). However, when it is an animated adaptation of a superhero that has been in live action films, it get's treated as a lesser film. Other than TTGttM, which had a $10M budget, Spider-verse is going to have the lowest worldwide gross of the year for superhero films by at least $200M.

kswiston (16228161)

Aquaman will be in the worldwide top 10 next weekend.

kswiston (16227820)

So, going beyond the headlining movies: Creed 2 really came to a hard stop this weekend. It was looking like it could hit $130M earlier, but with the >70% drop this weekend, that won't happen. Maybe $115M if Holiday legs hold up. Still over the first though. Ralph will drop behind Coco tomorrow in daily totals. Hitting $200M domestic is up in the air. I am leaning towards no, but it is usually hard to tell. Disney might push for it, since it will be close either way. Still, not much of an improvement over the first. There are a lot of territories left overseas, so too early to judge a final worldwide take. The Favorite came in a bit weaker than expected with this last expansion. I do wonder if Fox Searchlight played it too safe. My city of 1M had to wait until this weekend to get the film. It should do well in the awards nomination season though, so I assume legs will be steady, even if grosses are pretty small. Mortal Engines probably won't hit $20M domestic, even with holiday legs. If it wasn't the holiday, it wouldn't hit $15M domestic. Once Upon a Deadpool doesn't seem like it was worth doing, unless they make their money back on Home video. I haven't heard news of a Chinese release for this PG-13 version either. A Star is Born hit $200M domestic. Pretty crazy given its budget. Bradley Cooper has a free pass to do what he wants for a film or two. Bohemian Rhapsody looked like it could have hit $200M as well, but is dropping off fairly quickly now. Maybe $190M. Also a worldwide total that will exceed $700M. People liked their musicals/music biopics this year. Fantastic Beasts 2 was dumped. It's funny how closely FB1 > FB2 will mirror Days of Future Past > Apocalypse domestically. Robin Hood dropped 92%. haha. Vox Lux is probably going to finish under $1M total.

kswiston (16227100)

FTFY Probably depends on whether it hits China.

kswiston (16227420)

I wouldn't hold your breath for amazing overseas numbers for Bumblebee either outside of China.

kswiston (16226770)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $483M Bumblebee - $52M Mary Poppins Returns - $51M Bohemian Rhapsody - $667M Fantastic Beasts 2 - $611M The Grinch - $423M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $308M The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $161M Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse - $130M Mortal Engines - $54M

kswiston (16219260)

Mortal Engines is currently doing worse than the latest Dragon Tattoo film domestically. Holidays will help it pull ahead, but even with holiday legs, 20M domestic total will be iffy. This weekend will be around 2M. Down ~75%

kswiston (16220046)

Deadline had 65-70M a few days ago. So in the middle I guess. Add in another nearly 5M for the sneaks last week.It definitely can if it is frontloaded for December. I think that China will pass 260M, which would require a 3.8x multiplier to match domestically. However, non-superhero films would typically do 5-6x this weekend launching in this time slot. So will will have to wait and see.

kswiston (16219353)

Saturday projections are floating around. Mary Poppins will take second place this weekend with maybe $1M or so over Bumblebee. My best guess would be around 23M for Poppins and 22M for bumblebee over 3 days. Spider-verse is looking like 17-18M right now. So expected range from Friday. Aquaman is trending towards 68m not counting the 4.9M in Amazon sneaks.

kswiston (16207743)

Maybe 25M for Spider-verse's Chinese opening. Aquaman really bounced back on Saturday after that local movie, Airpocalpyse flopped. Looks like 22M or so for its third weekend. I don't know if beating Venom is a viable goal, but it will pass the $250M mark, making it at least third of all time for superhero stuff.

kswiston (16203617)

kswiston (16204458)

Bumblebee was under 6M on Friday without the previews money from Thursday and last week

kswiston (16203725)

kswiston (16204250)

kswiston (16196354)

Some of you are doing what happens every year with Late December releases and declare bombs before the holiday craziness even begins. Mary Poppins almost certainly is not getting the lofty 300M+ that some predicted, but nutcracker talk is silly. You don't even have to invoke magic Greatest Showman legs to get around $150M domestic from the Wed/Thurs start at this point in the year. Passengers had a 22M 5-day start and made 100M. Sing had a 55M 5-day and finished at $270M. Even shitty Assassins Creed was over 3x its 5-day opening and that had the xmas version of BvS legs.Check out this week's venue drops

kswiston (16197991)

Deadline dropped their Aquaman Friday estimate to 27.7M (from 30M).

kswiston (16183381)

I don't really buy that Solo would have automatically eclipsed everything in December. Other than Deadpool 2, which was an R rated film, Solo's major competition was spaced several weeks before and after. People just didn't care.

kswiston (16188128)

It's bad compared to projections. But possibly a bit low. Deadline had Friday trending towards 6M. Like you were in time for that.

kswiston (16182232)

kswiston (16177271)

kswiston (16177033)

You won't be able to tell until next week really.

kswiston (16166447)

Man of Steel did $9M in actual midnight previews. The $12M for Thursday were Walmart early showings. Walmart prepurchased the entire block and tried to sell tickets in store. We have no idea how many of those tickets actually sold, but given the fact that they never did it again with other films, it is presumed to have not gone well for them.

kswiston (16165500)

WB will possibly throw the $3M from those Amazon sneaks last week into the Friday number.

kswiston (16165817)

SPA has actually been having a good year Peter Rabbit was budgeted at $50M. HT3 was $80M.

kswiston (16165364)

Multiply by 10 for a ballpark.

kswiston (16165734)

This same site has an article from a day or two ago titled "Disney resetting Star Wars". Extrapolated clickbait seems to be their thing. Even moreso than your average geek media site.

kswiston (16164974)

Deadline is saying $8-10M in Thursday previews for Aquaman, and 2-2.5M for Bumblebee

kswiston (16161736)

Presales for Poppins were pretty close to Aquaman leading into this week, and clearly that wasn't for opening day. So it will probably get some good bumps going into Christmas. I'm thinking that Aquaman wins the month though. Seems to be good enough for a big year end blockbuster, and the buzz isn't there for Bumblebee.

kswiston (16153956)

Other than the 1.8B domestic and 4.6B worldwide made by the 4 superhero films that were already in the summer slate. I don't think that releasing within a month of Incredibles 2 would have improved things. Spider-verse gets what is basically two weeks of weekend days coming up, so any increase in OW from a summer release will be compensated by crazy Dec holiday weekdays

kswiston (16153058)

None of these comparisons really matter other than Ferdinand, because films are already starting to get holiday bumps as schools let out. The Grinch's 6th Wednesday as better than its third through fifth for instance. So comparing Spider-verse weekday grosses to Nov/Feb periods when schools were in session is of course going to look favorable. I am mainly curious to see what happens with Spider-verse when Aquaman and Bumblebee launch, since both of those will have more overlap with spider-verse's mostly male audience.

kswiston (16132304)

If you would like to request a ban, you can PM an admin.

kswiston (16135194)

GRRM doesn't care about either. Part of the issue here is that he started ASOIAF fairly late in his career. So he is now retirement age (and filthy rich from HBO royalties), so the drive/focus seems to not be there.

kswiston (16135240)

It's sort of a silly point though when there are hundreds of finished stories, and only a handful of notable ASOIAF/Kingkiller type situations, from the past 2 decades.

kswiston (16135143)

The Sanderson counterpoint is sort of funny because, while he writes a ton of books, his major series are going to take decades to finish up. Even if we just look at individual arcs for those series, the initial 5 book arc of the Stormlight Archive (out of a planned 10) will end up taking at least 13 years, and his second Mistborn arc is looking like it will end up taking around a decade to finish up as well (and unlike Stormlight, those books are fairly short). Sanderson publishes a lot of books, but he juggles so many balls that no particular thing is finished all that quickly by fantasy series standards.

kswiston (16099919)

Oops. Misread that. Anyhow, to answer the electricity question:

kswiston (16099802)

The push west happened long before 1895. Ever wonder why Ohio and Michigan are considered part of the midwest, even though they are nowhere near the western half of the country? That was the western frontier at one point. Anyhow, as others have pointed out, the US had cheap land deals in the west for many decades, and back before the industrial revolution (and even some time after), most Americans were in the agricultural sector. If you could afford to buy land, you could have a farm and hopefully a better life. This especially appealed to European immigrants coming from places were land was expensive.

kswiston (16100670)

Did the edit fix it? I copied it to an image hosting site.

kswiston (16100831)

Television includes the premium cable channels and their VoD services. Possibly Netflix and the like as well. I think that digital is digital purchases and rentals.

kswiston (16099282)

Speaking of overseas profit sharing and ancillary markets, I found the image that I was looking for a week or two back. It is from a 2014 article, so some of the dvd/bluray pie likely switched to digital, but it largely holds true now:

kswiston (16098539)

Gitesh says 300M by Thursday, but it's pretty clear that Aquaman will hit that on Wednesday with plenty to spare.

kswiston (16096787)

Todd McFarlane is 57. Venom was created 30 years ago.

kswiston (16094587)

Is that the game where you sat back and let your teammates die?

kswiston (16079120)

Not all bad news for Peter Jackson this week

kswiston (16047823)

It's funny that the typical college junior wasn't even born when Titanic came out. A whole generation of people whose only experience with a James Cameron theatrical release was Avatar.

kswiston (16017350)

kswiston (16021766)

The Grinch is going to end up pretty close to 300M. If Ralph passes 200M, it will be by crawling there.

kswiston (16021294)

Mortal Engines flopping was long predicted, but the level of its flopping is amusing.

kswiston (16021129)

I have a 5 year old, and I would say that Spider-verse isn't really appropriate for younger kids. Not because anything in it is objectionable (at least beyond the network cartoons that we used to watch), but because it is not written in a way that will appeal to children. There is a long ramp up to action, a lot of the plot focuses on interpersonal stuff that is not going to interest them. Basically a recipe for bored little kids.

kswiston (16021219)

Hong Kong 20 December 2018 Japan 21 December 2018 Australia 26 December 2018 Italy 1 January 2019 Argentina 3 January 2019 Brazil 3 January 2019 Serbia 3 January 2019 Bulgaria 4 January 2019 Czech Republic 10 January 2019 Hungary 10 January 2019 Slovakia 10 January 2019 Lithuania 11 January 2019 Poland 11 January 2019 Romania 11 January 2019 Turkey 11 January 2019 Germany 24 January 2019 Norway 1 February 2019 Sweden 1 February 2019 Denmark 7 February 2019 France 13 February 2019 Ralph will do alright, but it is still the bottom rung of popularity for post-Tangled Disney Animation

kswiston (16019316)

The image is correct. Films have plenty of posters. The other stuff was not, but it is fixed now. I typo'd the title, and plain forgot to update the RT/MC stuff when I made the Spider-verse image from a copy of Ralph 2's file. Oops!

kswiston (16018830)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $261M Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse - $56M Mortal Engines - $42M ($18M last weekend) Venom - $853M Bohemian Rhapsody - $635M Fantastic Beasts 2 - $596M A Star is Born - $376M The Grinch - $373M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $285M The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $153M Creed II - $131M Robin Hood - $74M Widows - $71M

kswiston (16000940)

Animation in general gets a different audience, but Spider-verse is not getting the animation audience. Its audience breakdown is not much different than a regular superhero film. Which makes sense, given that it wasn't a film written to appeal to young children. Older children already go to MCU, DCEU, and other superhero films. From past Deadline Articles: Into the Spider-verse Spider-man HomecomingI can't find family stats for Homecoming, but there were more young people going to that than Spider-verse by percentage. Either way, I don't think that Spider-verse is hitting an audience missed by the live action films, and it is going to miss most of the overseas audience because Asia and a few other places don't find animated heroes as compelling. The live action superhero slate isn't so busy that you couldn't cram 1-2 more on a year. So again, the animated films are going to have to justify their existence. At least in the case of Spider-verse, the film is going to be SPA's first real taste at critical acclaim and possible awards season trophies. That shouldn't matter that much, but Hollywood still likes its awards. I think that the domestic take will end up justifying the sequel anyhow, even if overseas is sub 200M, but if it was borderline, the acclaim will probably help. As for Lego Batman, 136M overseas is pretty poor. The fact that the original Lego Movie didn't do that well overseas doesn't change things. Those overseas grosses are comparable to what you would expect from an animated film that earned $50-100M domestic. Ferdinand made $211M overseas.

kswiston (15999930)

It would be worth a shot. you can only reboot high school Peter so many times in the span of a single generation. No one has shown any interest in doing a film from the perspective of an older Spider-man

kswiston (15999690)

I am not sure why so much emphasis is being put on Lego Batman, when Lego Batman did terribly overseas. And while domestic was high enough to give a Lego Batman sequel a shot, I am not so sure that the Lego franchise has much gas left in the tank. If people want more animated Marvel/DC superhero films, $300-400M globally isn't really going to cut it. You would get a better return out of a live action film with a similar budget (see Venom, Deadpool, and Logan).

kswiston (1359940)

The film was good, but it went over my soon to be 4 year old daughter's head.

kswiston (15998853)

I am expecting it to be lumped in with the previews. Fantastic Beasts 2 had early sneaks lumped in with the Friday gross.

kswiston (15995158)

Totoro is doing really well in China. We get to add the release of a 30 year old anime to the list of things that are bigger than Star Wars in China this year.

kswiston (15994188)

Aquaman will win 3 worldwide weekends due to how spread out it is.

kswiston (15993147)

kswiston (15993518)

kswiston (15986667)

Spider-verse was excellent, and I am not a huge cartoon person, despite having to see a lot of them due to having a kid who is almost 5. The art style and animation is so creative, and the story was a great intro to Miles. I wish that certain characters got more time, but there is only so much you can do in 2 hours.

kswiston (15975697)

Domestic will prevent that from happening.

kswiston (15977678)

Spider-verse having heavy preview frontloading for animation doesn't surprise me. The same thing happened to The Incredibles 2. A lot of teenagers and younger adults are interested, so previews go up.

kswiston (15974275)

WW2 was pretty complex due to pre-existing relationships between nations. Take France for instance. Widespread support for the resistance movement in France didn't happen until pretty late in the war. Most people were resigned to just making due as a vassal state of the Germans. Many still had the opinion that England was worse than Germany, even after German occupation had started.

kswiston (15971737)

A lot of South East and East Asia was pro-Japanese at first in WW2 for similar reasons. But the Japanese were terrible to the locals of occupied territories. When it was clear that Japan wanted to be the replacement colonizers (and not liberators) that goodwill didn't last.

kswiston (15969921)

You can't sacrifice yourself twice, so everyone else still has a chance.

kswiston (15970437)

About $8M of that was China, so around $11.5M or so for the openers. Justice League's first Thursday was $18M, but JL opened in over 25 more territories, including Australia, Germany, France, Italy, South Korea, and Spain.

kswiston (15968163)

That would be great if it was just Thursday and does not include last week's sneaks. 675k for Mortal Engines. Bombs Away!

kswiston (15968463)

My Neighbor Totoro is doing pretty well in China given how old it is.

kswiston (15967769)

It's too early to throw out worldwide grosses because I still have no real idea how Spider-verse will do domestically. Plus December complicates things. However, things don't look very good at the moment. In the UK: It opened to second behind Aquaman yesterday, but is now behind Creed 2 (which opened 2 weeks ago) and Bohemian Rhapsody (which opened Oct 26th). The gap between it and Aquaman is apparently huge, but I can't find numbers yet. Lego Batman made around 35M in the UK, which was more than what Wonder Woman or Justice League made there last year. Edit: Last weekend, Ralph and Grinch were the top 2 movies in the UK, but were not the top 2 in the previous dailies. So it does seem like Animation gets a bigger weekend bump. However nothing made much more than 3M last weekend, and presumably Creed 2 is another 40% or so weaker this week (maybe more with Aquaman. No major openers last weekend). So that sort of caps how well Spider-verse could be doing.

kswiston (15960797)

Lego Batman is barely over Smallfoot internationally.

kswiston (15948169)

They will average quite a bit more than that a year in wages and benefits for those 15k, so the building cost isn't that much. 67k per potential hire.

kswiston (15959749)

We will see how it fares domestically. But in South Korea for instance, Spider-verse's total doesn' look like it will catch Venom's first day (of $5.7M). First two days were about $500k combined, with another $100k in sneaks. It is 4th place in the daily charts behind two local films, and Bohemian Rhapsody which came out 6 weeks ago. Homecoming made over $50M in South Korea, so it is not like they hate the character. The rest of Asia looks the same so far. Europe is also weak.

kswiston (15950660)

So Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Spider-verse are all getting a bunch of international launches this week. Early Aquaman numbers mostly look good from what I can see. The other two, not so much. Downgrade your expectations for Spider-verse's international take I think.

kswiston (15927811)

I said the same thing on a discord a week or two back. I am expecting mediocre reviews and not a lot of audience interest. At least it wasn't $70M like Downsizing.

kswiston (15928032)

I actually was a teenager in the 90s, so I picked that. I can't think of many benefits to living earlier than that. Maybe the 80s in terms of employment opportunities. I finished my Masters degree in 2008, which wasn't exactly the best timing.

kswiston (15924829)

Minus Sing's Wednesday opening factor. But Ferdinand had a 6x multi at this point last year.

kswiston (15914355)

Probably not. The thought was that the super high user reviews would lead to amazing weekday holds, but that isn't happening. It is over 20M behind Venom and dropping. Venom had good holds, so I don't see where is gains the extra 45M over Venom going forward to hit 300M. We will know more this weekend. Edit: I was looking at the wrong day for Venom. Fixed the gap to the correct 20M

kswiston (15912785)

Better than what most people responsible for the 08 economy crash got I guess. White collar crime is always underpunished relative to the number of people that it harms. Edit: As for drug charges, the harsh sentences are both political and unevenly administered.

kswiston (15834799)

This is my guess too. Qui'ra or however it is spelled could be written out, but I could see Maul showing up again on one or more of the shows.

kswiston (15834885)

Coco was pretty big out of the gate. It didn't really have unusual legs for a November Disney film. Spider-verse has the busiest movie period of the year to hopefully leg it out.

kswiston (15823896)

Nothing is really pointing to Aquaman being crap yet though. So the hate is confusing. I am not personally expecting a masterpiece, but am optimistic that it can at least be a fun 3 or so out of 5 star action spectacle. Which is good enough for holiday period. DCEU deserved a lot of its kicks for how DC/WB handled the universe ramp up, but a scenario where all three of our remaining superhero studios are making healthy money is going to be best for fans of superhero movies. Even if you are mostly interested in one of the families of films. If the DCEU can recover as a series of less connected solo films, and we get some fun films from DC heroes who aren't Batman or Superman, that would be good. RE Sony: I didn't think that Venom was all that great outside of an entertaining performance by Tom Hardy, but I'd be up for more if they can emulate the quality bumps of the Wolverine solo films.

kswiston (15825069)

After 4 weekends, Fantastic Beasts 1 was sitting at $682M worldwide, compared to the current $569M for the sequel. Fantastic Beasts 1's fourth worldwide weekend was $44.5M. It went on to make another $132M worldwide during the remainder of its run, whcih was just shy of 3x its fourth weekend gross. Fantastic Beasts 2's fourth worldwide weekend was $28.8M. If it had the same legs as FB1 going forward, it would make another $85M going forward, for a final total of $654M. However, it hasn't been holding as well as FB1 (this same calculation gave FB2 $673M last weekend), so breaking $650M seems unlikely.

kswiston (15823564)

It does seem a bit odd to get two solo films in a row that are so much bigger than anything prior, other than Infinity War. But it's hard to make any real projections. I do wonder if Infinity War benefited from being so heavy on action and not as much a comedy as many MCU films are. The Aquaman trailers seem to point to that being the case there as well (Plus Wan's last film grossed almost $400M in China). But, it's not like any of the non-MCU films were doing better before either. Maybe Tencent figured out how to market these films to a wider audience since Wonder Woman.

kswiston (15836016)

Furious 7 and 8 are the two highest grossing Hollywood films there. but local films have taken over the top spots. A dramedy made $450M there this year, so it's not like Chinese audiences only respond to CGI filled blockbusters

kswiston (15833685)

China doesn't have stipulations on how long films need to play in a threatre before being pulled. So CRA got 33k showings in China on opening night. By that Sunday (Day 3), it was 14k showings. By the second Friday, it was basically not playing in China anymore. They just gave the screens to Aquaman instead. So the risk in trying something is small. Domestically, theatres have to show a big studio film for at least two full weeks, often with a stipulation on the types and quantity of screens.

kswiston (15832514)

Edit: Black Panther for comparison.

kswiston (15832794)

South Africa actually does like some Tyler Perry stuff.

kswiston (15822273)

Yes. I just meant that, in the past 3 years, Deadpool, Deadpool 2, BvS, Wonder Woman, Suicide Squad, Thor Ragnarok, GotG2, and Spider-Man Homecoming would have all broken $1B worldwide if they had a $300M gross in China. In addition to BP which didn't need China at all for 1B.

kswiston (15820261)

Aquaman will need to be strong everywhere for $1B. I think that Europe is the biggest question mark. It should play well in most of Asia and in the Latin American countries that like Superheroes. It's not impossible if China continues to blow up though. Quite a few recent superhero films would have passed $1B worldwide with $300M in China instead of the usual $100Mish (or $0 in the case of Deadpool and Suicide Squad).

kswiston (15819352)

I don't see how that is feasible. Entgroup totals are often slightly inflated, and $854M would have required what they had in China over the past 7 days, plus $2M from the rest of the world. If the weekend was only $700k, Venom wasn't much over $1M from Mon-Sun outside of China. Domestic Mon-Thurs was less than 150k. At best, overseas was double that. Last weekend, Venom was sitting at $845.5M. This weekend it's $851.2M. So, a $5.7M difference. We'd have expected $7.3-7.4M using the entgroup totals (6.3M in China since last Sunday) and the likely rest of world gross from this week. Engroup's USD total for Venom in China is almost $3M higher than what Gavin is reporting, so that might have something to do with it.

kswiston (15817746)

not quite. Justice League was over $100M in total. Aquaman will pass it tomorrow.

kswiston (15818305)

And as the Aquaman box office saga begins, the Venom saga wraps up. $1.5M in China, $300k domestic, and $400k elsewhere this weekend. Venom will probably leg it past Thor Ragnarok to take its final place on the worldwide superhero chart. Until Aquaman bumps it down the list.

kswiston (15817961)

Bohemian Rhapsody is just a tad under $600M now, and is still strong enough overseas that we could see it approach or pass $700M worldwide. EDIT: Actually, I read the weekend gross wrong. I thought that $29M was worldwide, but that was just the international weekend. The worldwide weekend was $35M. $700M is in good shape.

kswiston (15817637)

I think that imgur images are still acting up, so I am in the process of rehosting them on Abload. Sorry if the OP is a bit broken atm.

kswiston (15817433)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Aquaman - $94M opening in China - Third biggest superhero launch ever there after Infinity War and Venom Venom - $851M Bohemian Rhapsody - $597M Fantastic Beasts 2 - $569M A Star is Born - $370M The Grinch - $322M The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $140M Creed 2 - $120M Robin Hood - $66M Widows - $65M Mortal Engines - $18M

kswiston (15811432)

I am not mistaking the split. The 25% figure for China has been in effect since 2012. Films just make a lot more from the ancillary market over time than they do from box office, which puts a cap on how much China can help/save films, even if they hit huge numbers there. Also, you edited in the final paragraph to your original post that kicked off this conversation after I initially replied. I was replying to this:I didn't see the part after it until just now. Obviously studios are happy for a boost in China, but the overall revenue boost is not as big as the grosses suggest. Outside of a few exceptions, studios typically make more in the UK than China, even if Chinese grosses usually dwarf UK grosses for blockbusters. Ancillary revenue is big in mature markets: There is another article out there that compares studio revenue for films by territory. It was written in 2014 or 2015, but I can't easily find it, and it's 1am.

kswiston (15810879)

Films are budgeted for ancillary revenue. Most don't break even in theatrical rentals alone. China is nice for headlines and box office mojo rankings, but even in a case like Venom, the difference to a films bottom line isn't huge. Venom made Sony about $40M grossing what it did in China vs a regular superhero gross there. Hitting 300M domestic instead of 213M would have made them over double that. Of course, extra money is always good.

kswiston (15810691)

Domestic grosses are about 6x more profitable per dollar than Chinese grosses. Legit ancillary markets barely exist in China.

kswiston (15789975)

Venom only made 1M worldwide outside of China last weekend. Worldwide total is just going to be whatever china did in the past 7 days, plus less than 2M for everywhere else. Maybe 854M.

kswiston (15790544)

They may be hoping to keep it fresh through the holiday period in most markets. Next weekend should definitely be most tertiary cities though. SPC waited too long for Call Me By Your Name last year, hoping for the big oscar bump. But by then the frontrunner narrative had moved to other films, and their post oscar nomination grosses were fairly modest.

kswiston (15789362)

I want to see domestic reviews before I get too crazy with domestic predictions, but I am pretty optimistic. I think that Aquaman is going to be the big action film pick for the holiday season. Whether that means 250M or 350M, we'll see. Based on the way that it is blowing up, Aquaman should easily pass 200M in China. Possibly even closer to 250M with the holiday season approaching (not as big there as here, but still a boost). If domestic is strong, and assuming that at least the rest of Asia follows suit in digging Aquaman, this could be the biggest film in the DCEU. Latin America loves DC, so I expect a strong performance there as well.

kswiston (15776549)

kswiston (15777654)

If China is a simultaneous launch, Endgame will break 1B worldwide in 6-7 days. Assuming no territory launches earlier than Wednesday anyhow.

kswiston (2853857)

I am hoping for a time jump in the next film.

kswiston (2820366)

I think that LucasFilm's actor recreation stuff hasn't escaped the uncanny valley just yet. I am curious to see if they use it again in the future.

kswiston (2820531)

Revenge of the Sith has always had a better reception than the other prequels, but I think that a lot of that has to do with it offering some pay off to the entire venture.

kswiston (15768849)

This is why Bumblebee is dying.

kswiston (15770442)

Other than China, which won't get a date until next April

kswiston (15769715)

Illumination has mastered the art of marketing mediocre films to huge money.

kswiston (15774630)

I agree, but opening a week after what will probably be a 600M film doesn't help. 2 weeks will give both more room.

kswiston (15763743)

I am thinking that Aquaman does pretty well domestically too. Not sure about 300M+ just yet, but I am betting that the domestic total is comfortably over Justice League.

kswiston (15766606)

The current view count for Endgame is behind by quite a bit I think. Look at the number of likes. Compare it to any other movie trailer.

kswiston (15767461)

I meant that it had as many likes as a trailer with 40M views back when it was still saying 2M views. I expect the view count to be over 50M by the end of the night.

kswiston (15768760)

Avengers Endgame officially moving to April gives Detective Pikachu more breathing room.

kswiston (15760315)

Venom died so that Aquaman and the DCEU could live. Given the release window and user scores, Aquaman has a decent shot at 200M in China.

kswiston (15676865)

Another quality film in the time honored tradition of using the name of a big director to sell a film by their long term cinematographer, visual effects supervisor, or second unit director.

kswiston (15657604)

A franchise being a merch juggernaut does not necessarily mean that every film will move a ton of merch. Do kids really want to play with Fantastic Beasts merch, or will it be like all of the unloved Qi'ra and Beckett toys sitting in clearance bins while kids still happily buy Darth Vader stuff? Also, the redesign really killed the momentum of our thread this week. Wednesday and we are still on the first 100PPP page!

kswiston (15620213)

Trailer thread is up:

kswiston (15618831)

55M+

kswiston (15615276)

Looks like Aquaman presales in China have normalized. I guess that they were high because a company bought out blocks of them hoping to sell for inflated prices later. It is still tracking more like an MCU film than a DCEU film though.

kswiston (15620072)

China on the low end. Actual range is probably 55-70. It's still too early to be specific. Domestic tracking is 65M I think. But I am betting that it goes a bit higher if reviews are good.

kswiston (15597637)

Creed 2 is doing fine. The first one topped out at $109M. This one will probably be around $120-125M domestic, and hopefully better than the first overseas.

kswiston (15597383)

$460M internationally is probably too high. This weekend was $40M overseas. $2.35M of that was from China, so roughly $38M elsewhere. FB1 did $45M outside of China internationally in its third weekend, and ended up making about $146M more internationally without China after that point. With the same legs as FB1 going forward, FB2 would make another $123M outside of China (it will do less than $2M more in China). $385M (current international total incl. China) + $125 = $510M total overseas. That would be ~58M in China and $452M elsewhere. However, drops overseas for FB2 have been worse than those of FB1 so far, so the $510M is probably closer to a best cast scenario. As for domestic, same legs as FB1 going forward from this weekend would be another $29M, for a $163M total. So far legs have been worse than FB1, and with the crowded market in the second half of this month, I don't see that changing much. Basically, $675M would be closer to a best case scenario at this point. JL money seems about right.

kswiston (15596408)

Fantastic Beasts 1 was at $607M worldwide after its third weekend. FB2 is now 87M behind. Sub-700M total, here we go!

kswiston (15596468)

Bohemian Rhapsody is now at $540M, and will easily hit $600M worldwide. Its budget was $52M.

kswiston (15595533)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Venom - $844M Bohemian Rhapsody - $540M Fantastic Beasts 2 - $520M A Star is Born - $362M The Grinch - $268M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $207M Johnny English Strikes Back - $153M The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $131M Creed 2 - $93M Robin Hood - $48M

kswiston (15585115)

None of those guys are really historical. But action oriented period pieces seem to be a hard sell these days.

kswiston (15584228)

Is Tobey going to play midlife crisis Spider-Man?

kswiston (15588095)

Also, Nutcracker was bad, and Mary Poppins is being called one of the better films of the year in early buzz. Seems like a good fit in December.

kswiston (15581399)

Spider people are having a good year in media. Edit: Not so much people getting caught in Spider webs.

kswiston (15579235)

This month will have many interesting runs. Next week is still dead, but after that, we get a deluge of releases. Domestic OW: Domestic Total: Domestic OW: Domestic Total: Domestic OW: Domestic Total: Domestic 5 Day OW (opens Wed): Domestic Total: Domestic OW: Domestic Total:

kswiston (15565865)

kswiston (15529932)

That's definitely a trailer.

kswiston (15496154)

100M 5 day is way too high on a 65M opening. They are forgetting comic book preview numbers. Especially with the Amazon Sneaks.

kswiston (15494814)

If Aquaman does 65M opening weekend, it will make more than 80M in those first 5 days. Probably more like 85M. I could see it making more than 65M OW with good reviews as well.

kswiston (15495874)

FB2 will be profitable. That is not the issue. The issue is whether FB3 can be profitable if the franchise continues to drop off. If the next one is 125M domestic and maybe 575M worldwide, what happens? WB takes a bath is what would happen if they don't seriously cut the budget down.

kswiston (15493321)

They posted 30-40M last week.

kswiston (15492822)

Deadline X-Mas tracking:

kswiston (15490573)

It has no chance at catching A Star is Born now. Also not a good chance of catching CRA.

kswiston (15492525)

I am thinking 160s. Holds this week so far could have been worse. Wednesday was 71% of FB1's corresponding day, which is better than this past weekend's ~65% We'll see what the weekend looks like. If FB2 kept making 71% of FB1 for the rest of its run, it would finish with 172M. However, December is really crowded. I doubt that FB2 will have the momentum to hold enough screens beyond the next 2 weeks.

kswiston (15459990)

They sold it to Netflix.

kswiston (15393776)

That was crazy. I'd have made it 20 seconds. I wonder if this is giving Tom Cruise ideas for MI7 though.

kswiston (15383110)

Hardy signed up because he is a nerd. Williams wanted the dollars.

kswiston (15384584)

The Chrysler plant in Windsor, Ontario hired thousands of people in the past 3 years to replace their early 80s hires. Most of the new employees are young (20s / 30s). Wages for new hires are a lot lower then they were previously, but there aren't that many jobs where to can immediately do 50k/yr with some overtime, and be looking at 75-80k by the end of your first decade. If you didn't/couldn't get an in demand university degree, auto work is close to a best bet in several communities.

kswiston (15366934)

74M. The drop would be basically the same domestically as BvS to Justice League in terms of percentage. But overseas is holding better than JL.

kswiston (15366220)

They aren't unlikely. I think that under 160M is more likely than over 170M at this point.

kswiston (15365997)

If I was Universal, I'd be moving Mortal Engines to December 7th. Just some limited release openings and maybe some prestige film expansions that weekend. They could maybe squeak out a Number 1 opening. Edit: though this probably would have needed doing earlier in the month or more likely in October.

kswiston (15359703)

The timeline in this post doesn't really match up. The transition away from the X-Men and towards the Avengers in comics happened many years before Avengers 1. Marvel started prepping for self-financed movie productions in 2004, and Marvel Comics transitioned to reflect that. Avengers Disassembled was summer 2004, New Avengers and House of M were 2005, and Civil War was 2006. Marvel Comics has been Avengers focused since. Avengers and Spider-man have generally been the best selling titles for much of that time. Especially in the years leading up to Iron Man 1.

kswiston (15357669)

Maybe Disney will make a live action remake of their furry version of Robin Hood.

kswiston (15359995)

And John C. Reilly as Watson.

kswiston (15355990)

Thor Ragnarok released 2 weeks before. Justice League got bumped by Thanksgiving in weekend #2. Same as Fantastic Beasts 2 this weekend. Suicide Squad's late legs were good. But it dropped over 67% in its second weekend, so the overall OW multiplier is average. Edit: Venom for comparison

kswiston (15354293)

We were getting Venom 2 back when this first one passed $500M.

kswiston (15353735)

Fantastic Beasts 1 was already at $475M by this point. Also China launched a week later for FB1, and will go on to make quite a bit more. Subtracting China, it was $220M for FB1 vs $216M for FB2 last weekend, and $435M for FB1 vs $389M for FB2 this weekend. $800M is dead. $700M is looking unlikely.

kswiston (15353473)

I don't think that there is much that you can read into China. XXX3, Warcraft, Rampage, and Resident Evil 6 are also bigger than all of the solo superhero films there. China does its own thing. Sony China and Tencent did an excellent job selling the film to local audiences. Sony partnering with them to finance Venom was smart business.

kswiston (15352885)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Venom - $823M Bohemian Rhapsody - $472M Fantastic Beasts 2 - $440M A Star is Born - $353M The Grinch - $216M Ralph Breaks the Internet - $126M The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $122M A Dragon Tattoo Story - $31M Robin Hood - $23M

kswiston (15323559)

kswiston (15315825)

Phonciple was a BronsonLee alt all along!?

kswiston (2457654)

1) Avengers: Infinity War 2) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 3) The Incredibles 2 4) Deadpool 2 5) Solo This list was generated before I saw what wrote (damn you). However, if we get the Solo teaser before the cutoff, I might mix it up a bit. For now, I think that Solo and Deadpool 2 will both be in the $300-350M range. I had a few others near that, so I wouldn't be surprised to see upsets. Namely Black Panther. Maybe the Grinch. I might have considered Aquaman more strongly before November, but I don't know now.

kswiston (2457927)

Incredibles 1 adjusts to about $375M. Of course, there's definitely the chance that it is more Monsters University than Toy Story 3/Finding Dory.

kswiston (15316348)

In other news, Ralph 2 is looking like mid-high 80s, Creed 2 like mid-high 50s, Fantastic Beasts 2 like low 40s, and The Grinch around 40M for the 5-day at the moment.

kswiston (15308133)

I like this one: Wkd Box Office - 12•1-10•17 - Godzilla Commission and Black panther starring John Conspiracy. Video design for the US voters: All the thread Edit: the timeline on this fits! Wkd Box Office - 12•2-4•17 - Afflecks in the street?

kswiston (15294526)

Somewhere around 50%. Black Friday this week is basically a second Saturday.

kswiston (15295104)

kswiston (15294342)

$4.5M for Venom in China today. Down 64% Friday to Friday. If the rest of the weekend follows last weekend's pattern, Venom will be sitting at around $240M in China as of Sunday.

kswiston (15299494)

I would say the opposite.

kswiston (15297260)

Depends on Chinese holds, which are not really that predictable. Venom will probably get an extension in China past this Thursday's end of the standard 3 week engagement, but I haven't heard news yet on whether that has been confirmed. Venom will probably be a little under $250M by next Thursday ($246-248M?). If it gets extended, I'd guess somewhere in the $260-270M range as a finish. Maybe closer to the former. Aquaman will steal most of the theatres away, but that doesn't open until Dec 7th. It seemed possible that Venom would have a really leggy run last weekend, but drops since last weekend didn't really pan out that way.

kswiston (15285026)

Slayven had it right with the reverse Driving Miss Daisy line. And ya, Mortensen really nuked that Q&A. Nothing sells a film about racial understanding like having your white co-lead say the N-word. You could probably just wait until Sunday at this point. If you still feel like things are matching what you thought would happen, type it up. If things change, you save a some typing. OS hasn't been updated since last Sunday anyhow.

kswiston (15284465)

The column series for that Jenni Miller article on NBC news is 'hot take'... Maybe it is indeed time to retire that term.

kswiston (15271219)

It was probably closer to $50k. Plus the credit. That case was never going to land anywhere near 50M in court.

kswiston (15279261)

Speaking of Disney, they break their $3.00B annual domestic box office record this year.

kswiston (15272479)

That's what he said though: Three big films against The Finest Hours, The BFG, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Pete's Dragon, A Wrinkle in Time, Christopher Robin, and Nutcracker since the start of 2016. So batting 3 out of 10 in recent years, and even Pirates was down close to $250M from the fourth one. It's looking like Mary Poppins might make it 4 out of 11 though.

kswiston (15271979)

He is just talking about Disney live action. No Star Wars. No Marvel.

kswiston (15268068)

1.2M of that was Monday sneaks.

kswiston (15266199)

kswiston (15264665)

Deadline ended up being on the mark for Ralph

kswiston (15255117)

There's talk that Ralph Breaks the Internet will come in over $19.5M today. Moana's Wednesday was $15.5M. With the same legs as Moana, a $19.5M Wednesday would give Ralph a tad over $100M for its 5-day opening. EDIT: Coco and Moana both did around 3x their five day openings domestically. Frozen did more than that.

kswiston (15247592)

I'm not seeing it. Last weekend was 3.5M internationally outside of China. The weekend before was almost 12M. Domestic fell over 60% last weekend to $1.9M and Venom loses another 55% of its venues starting today. Thanksgiving will offset that some, but where are you getting another 26M past Sunday based on those numbers?

kswiston (15251451)

18th. This past Sunday.

kswiston (15230299)

Venom made 3.8M in China on Wednesday. It will probably finish the Mon-Thurs period with a bit less than 17M. A local film is starting to blow up there (knocking Venom from #1 today), so weekend venue holds might not be as strong as expected.

kswiston (15229896)

Deadline confirms that almost $100M was spent on the new Robin Hood.

kswiston (15197208)

Deadline has the following 5 day (Wed - Mon) Thanksgiving projections: Ralph Breaks the Internet - $70M Creed 2 - $55M Fantastic Beasts 2 - $42M Robin Hood - Mid teens.

kswiston (15193124)

FB1 was $6.75M on the same day. FB2's opening weekend was 83% of FB1. This first Monday was 76%.

kswiston (15197693)

kswiston (15166339)

That wasn't studio tracking. Just boxoffice's prediction. We will get studio tracking 3 weeks before release.

kswiston (15156795)

Venom was ~$5M in China on Monday, so Mon-Thurs won't be 20M+.

kswiston (15156288)

That happened with The Hunger Games.

kswiston (15154511)

You have a chance of seeing sub 700 on this one.

kswiston (15156158)

I think just under or just over 700M seems to be the probable scenario, but we will know more in a week.

kswiston (15137052)

Legendary spent $125M on Skyscraper. They aren't doing Pokemon for less.

kswiston (15130092)

Detective Pikachu is from Legendary, so I doubt it was all that cheap.

kswiston (15122207)

37.5M of that difference was China, which opened in Fantastic Beasts 1's second weekend, and which will end up being down considerably from the first film's total gross.

kswiston (15121829)

My game was shot after Venom, which I thought would be huge based on trailer metrics. It was huge. Just not in the right country.

kswiston (15122420)

I'd bet money that we don't see a fifth film in this particular series. This one will be down at least $100M, if not more, and much of that will be from the domestic take, which is most profitable. The budgets are not exactly low either.

kswiston (15121568)

It was probably for the best that the main series films got other people to do the screenwriting. JK Rowling seems to be going down the Star Wars prequels route of "someone should have said no to some of this".

kswiston (15121335)

It has been getting progressively worse over the years, as mainstream tastes have diverged from the films that are winning awards. Which is part of the reason that their viewership has been dropping off.

kswiston (15121244)

Worldwide outside of China dropped off pretty quickly. Venom only made $10M in the past week not counting China. Thanksgiving weekend will help a bit next week domestically, but domestic is looking like it has $5-7M left. Enough to pass Solo, and maybe edge over AMatW, but we are nearing the endpoint.

kswiston (15121068)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? is performing really softly for a film that has one of the frontrunners for the big acting awards this year. The Academy is going to have that same problem this year where all of the films that critics and their voters raved over made no money.

kswiston (15120861)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Fantastic Beasts 2 - $253M Venom - $781M Bohemian Rhapsody - $384M A Star is Born - $341M Halloween - $251M The Grinch - $152M The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $116M A Dragon Tattoo Story - $27M

kswiston (15122136)

Turnout in 2016 was a bit more than 55%.

kswiston (15097985)

Just don't jump the gun, or I will lock it. If we are going to have a thread that will naturally devolve into fan wars and tears, at least base it on something that has happened and not speculation.

kswiston (15099619)

An uptick is already out the window. Deadline's '14% higher than FB1 in like-for-like territories' line for the overseas gross as of Friday is very misleading. The Wed+Thurs overseas for FB2 was 29% higher than that of FB1. The Friday gross (ignoring China which opened in weekend #2 for FB1) is only 3% higher. As of Sunday, it will probably be behind already internationally without China. And weekend #1 for FB2 in China is going to be lower than weekend #1 for FB1.

kswiston (15109862)

More of you should see Widows. If you were wondering why Steve McQueen would make an action revenge/heist film, the answer is that he didn't really make a traditional one. Pretty great acting from the large majority of the cast.

kswiston (15098389)

People are reading the article wrong (or not reading it). The study doesn't say that Canada will personally cause that climate change. It says that if every nation on earth adopted Canada's carbon emission goals, temperatures would go up 5C. Canada itself emits less than it absorbs thanks to our very large forest area and low population. However energy per capita is one of the higher levels on earth, and we aren't doing enough to reduce it.

kswiston (15094383)

Not really. The space ship holding the symbiotes crashes in Malaysia, and the bad one works its way to San Fran. It is possible that it stopped in China or Hong Kong or something, but I forget. If it did, it was a throwaway scene.

kswiston (15093367)

Fantastic Beasts 3: Tom Riddle vs Harry Potter's grandpa who looks exactly like Harry and is played by Daniel Radcliffe: Please be Excited.

kswiston (15093235)

FB1 in China opened to $40M and made about $85M total. This one is looking like $36-38M opening weekend, and will probably top out at $55-60M total. Fantastic Beasts 1 opened to around $75M domestic, and had a better than 3.1x OW multiplier here for a $234M finish. I am going to guess around a 2.7x opening weekend multiplier for Fantastic Beasts 2 given the word of mouth. Thanksgiving is going to boost legs, but I am not expecting it to last long into December. If you assume around $63M this weekend, that gives you roughly $170M domestic. That's is probably even on the optimistic end. Something closer to 2.5x OW ($158M total) wouldn't really surprise me either. So roughly $320M for FB1 vs maybe $230M for FB2 in Domestic + China. Even if the rest of the world is around even, that's around a $100M drop from the first film. I am going to go out on a limb and say that international legs won't be as good either. So, sub 700M is likely. Maybe enough for them to do the third film, but they should start considering budget cuts.

kswiston (15094011)

I have heard that it was basically 2 hours of fanservice and convoluted plots. I get the impression that it's not bad enough for you to enjoy it as a trainwreck, but doesn't really offer much to viewers who not big fans.

kswiston (15090453)

If it follows the first movie after Friday, it will made $64M, but I could see it being a bit lower than that given the wom.

kswiston (15090730)

kswiston (15091099)

kswiston (15090147)

kswiston (15075273)

Deadline is saying that Friday is 27.5M. 70M for the weekend is pretty optimistic given that number. FB1 was $2M higher on the Friday and was under 75M for the weekend.

kswiston (15057072)

It wasn't one fanbase in particular that was the issue. Just very poor behaviour by a few individuals in general, especially those who seemed to feel that normal courtesy and respect for other members doesn't apply to our semi public persons. NPD threads are going to be moderated more strictly if something similar pops up again. There's no reason why people should be attacked for sharing insight or projections.

kswiston (15064324)

You won't know this weekend. But this weekend in China seems to be high enough to keep it on the table.

kswiston (15061420)

If Venom passes Spider-Man 3, it would be the highest grossing superhero film outside of the MCU and Dark Knight duo. Ahead of everything else from Sony, Fox, and the DCEU. Also ahead of 14 of the 20 MCU films. Avi Arad vindicated.

kswiston (15061201)

It is not performing like any of the previous superhero films there. Both in terms of size and legs. Superhero runs are typically very predictable in China. But I guess Venom is their new GOAT.

kswiston (15060950)

Welp. China is being China, and $300M for Venom there is now on the table. All hail the potential third highest grossing solo hero worldwide I guess. Venom also stayed ahead of Fantastic Beasts 2 on Friday, which is getting poor user scores in China. Edit: Maoyan's projected Saturday for Venom would put the weekend a bit over Gavin's $50M high end. We shall see tomorrow. Edit2: 4th highest solo hero. I forgot about poor Batman.

kswiston (15042919)

kswiston (14984981)

We are getting 700+ pages of fake history this month

kswiston (14976351)

Cloverfield wasn't all that big in terms of box office, so while it was big in certain circles, plenty of marketing campaigns were more effective. Like The Lion King. Or if we want to stick to January films, American Sniper.

kswiston (14976601)

Brandon Sanderson likely has zero interest in working on someone else's stuff at this point in his career, and would be a terrible fit for ASOIAF. Fandom just lacks imagination. So if someone did something once, they are now the person for the job. Also see fan casting for geek films.

kswiston (14941821)

FWIW, the $750M floor was more the scenario where Venom played out like Black Panther in China. I didn't think was going to be the case. Just a realistic worst case scenario based on that opening. I figured slightly less than $600M worldwide thanks to Fantastics Beasts 2 and the fact that international grosses tend to trail off quicker than domestic, and around $200M in China. Over Deadpool 1 and GotG1. However, we can probably bump that up to $825M+ now. Over Wonder Woman. Fantastic Beasts might not do too hot in China, and Venom is holding well on the weekdays. We'll see if $850M is a realistic outside goal on Sunday, but Venom seems pretty likely to hit $225M in China.

kswiston (14933105)

'Not quite 600M' already counts the remaining rest of the world gross. Rest of the world was around 565M as of Sunday, with a 12M worldwide weekend outside of China. Down from 23M the weekend before. Venom is going to get hit hard in several territories this week due to Fantastic Beasts 2 launching. Even if Venom hits 600M even, no one is projecting 280Mish in China at the moment. Just the possibility of passing Jurassic World 2.

kswiston (14932149)

The worldwide total without China probably wasn't going to quite reach 600M. Also exchange rates for the Yuan are down about 8% since Jurassic World 2 came out. Jurassic World 2 made a bit shy of 1.7B RMB in China. Which would be about 244M now. Venom would have to make closer to 300M in China to reach Homecoming. 285-290M.

kswiston (14916904)

RIP Wes. I hope that he was able to find some enjoyment in those final days. I'll echo the Fuck Cancer chants.

kswiston (14879023)

I am mostly on board for Steve McQueen and the cast. But you are right. And well made thrillers tend to do pretty well. I don't know about Gone Girl levels of cash, but I think that it has a good shot at being quite profitable for its $40M budget.

kswiston (14878917)

Little Italy is only worthy of a 3001st post. Equal to the number of people who have seen the film.

kswiston (14878740)

Widows is opening in 3k+ venues next weekend. Hopefully it does well.

kswiston (14878810)

I am going on Friday. I am optimistic.

kswiston (14868726)

BOM doesn't update the individual territory pages until Tuesday, but the international total is from Sony. It includes China.

kswiston (14863454)

Because I seriously doubt that this particular sub-franchise is healthy enough to run its proposed length on the sorts of production budgets that it demands. And WB runs the risk of diluting their brand. The first Fantastic Beasts was already a $200M film. I doubt that this one was cheaper.

kswiston (14859024)

Except for most of them in Phase 3. An unusually strong Chinese gross pushing Venom past all of these films is pretty funny in light of the people in these threads who pegged it as a flop. But in terms of studio revenue, Venom is going to be on the bottom of the list of all of these $750-850M superhero films. China isn't that profitable, even when grosses are huge. Luckily Venom was one of the cheapest major superhero films, so still a big success for Sony.

kswiston (14861869)

Reviews are out. They are the poorest for any film in the Potterverse.

kswiston (14862013)

I think that WB would be better off scrapping these Fantastic Beasts films, waiting a few years, and then trying to get the OG cast back together for some film set in the future. Whether that is The Cursed Child or something new.

kswiston (14859492)

They are saving that for the sequel.

kswiston (14857795)

This is ResetEra's weekend box office thread. While the OP focuses on the popular weekend tallies, we typically discuss box office throughout the week as well when notable films are playing. New threads are are posted each Sunday morning, between 8-10am PST. *Click the chart to view the full source Venom - $674M A Star is Born - $323M Bohemian Rhapsody - $285M Halloween - $246M Smallfoot - $204M The House with a Clock in its Walls - $126M The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - $97M First Man - $94M The Grinch - $79M A Dragon Tattoo Story - $16M

kswiston (14857957)

Venom also passed Man of Steel, and will pass Doctor Strange tomorrow. At this point the very low end is going to be $750M. Probably closer to (and possibly over) $800M.

kswiston (14843955)

Venom will be around $675M worldwide by tomorrow's update. Maybe a bit higher. China is looking like $110M this weekend, and the worldwide total was $554M as of Thursday. If I had to guess, I'd say $13-15M for the rest of the world this weekend. Last weekend was $23M.

kswiston (14820733)

Halloween continues to wrap up quickly. Good holds for A Star is Born and Venom.

kswiston (14819717)

kswiston (14785150)

In a year when the 3 MCU films made $4B worldwide, I doubt he cares how other superhero studios are doing. But Sony has at least a new franchise, if not a viable cinematic universe .

kswiston (14788247)

Maoyan, a major online ticket seller/film news website in China, is now projecting around 1.4B RMB for Venom in China. Which would be around 200M USD.

kswiston (14785440)

Anyhow, with this larger than expected opening in China, Venom will officially pass Justice League worldwide this weekend.

kswiston (14788602)

Yes. Full run. I should have specified. Only Age of Ultron and Infinity War broke 200M for superhero films in China. Aou was around 235M. But Infinity War was 375M.

kswiston (14790104)

Not that close. Homecoming made $880M. Venom has an outside chance at $800M with great legs in China for a Hollywood blockbuster. Granted, studios make a lot more from the domestic gross than they do from China. China is mostly good for making impressive worldwide totals. In terms of lifetime revenue for the actual studio, $1 in US box office is worth around $5 in Chinese box office. After factoring in box office cut, home video, and other ancillary earnings.

kswiston (14789742)

I think that 750M is locked. This will outgross both Amazing Spider-Man films. If China truly is a 200M territory, Venom could end up over both Deadpool films (and everything in the history of Marvel Fox) as well.

kswiston (14789227)

Top 10 opening days of all time in China by local currency:Age of Ultron opened on a Wednesday I think. Furious 7 was on a Sunday. TFA on a Saturday. The rest were Friday.

kswiston (14788814)

Probably nothing special.

kswiston (14757704)

kswiston (14762016)

I heard that is so impressed by the performance of Sony Pictures under Rothman that he's planning on doing some clothing shopping to celebrate. Maybe a shirt or something.

kswiston (14751756)

kswiston (14752195)

85M would give Venom a pretty good shot at passing The Winter Soldier. Even with 75M, a total of 700M is probable.

kswiston (14724303)

kswiston (14595153)

Disney doesn't have a great track record for the live action stuff coming out of their main label in recent years. Even the live action remakes are very inconsistent. Pixar/WDAS, Lucasfilm, and Marvel just make so much money that it no longer matters as much.

kswiston (14592104)

I just find it amusing that Disney Star Wars went from yearly #1, to #2, and then back to #1 worldwide before Solo. And now Solo might fail to make the top 20 this year. Overseas audiences wanted nothing to do with Solo.

kswiston (14593003)

People will watch something in December. The final two weeks are some of the biggest movie weeks of the year. It's just a question of what gets picked from the many wide releases.

kswiston (14586444)

Probably. An Age of Ultron drop for Avengers 4 from Infinity War is still $500M domestic, and I don't see that level of drop off happening.

kswiston (14586716)

The month of reshoots under a second director probably didn't help the budget. I am guessing that this film was originally supposed to be around or a bit under $100M. But even that would have been too high I think. We are probably looking at less than $200M worldwide. This film would have had to have been closer to $60-70M to be worth the effort.

kswiston (14585964)

Bohemian Rhapsody will make $400M on the low side. So that's two films about 70s music this year that worldwide audiences chose over Solo.

kswiston (14586515)