Interesting article from a trusted source, these guys were responsible for getting the UK to change how they reacted. Basically in a rough estimate they feel two thirds would of died soon anyway. Imperial College London modelling, used to inform government, has suggested 500,000 could have died by August in the UK if the virus was left to rip through the population. It also warned the government's previous strategy to slow the spread by asking those with symptoms to self-isolate and shield the most vulnerable could have led to 250,000 deaths. Now, it is hoped the lockdown will limit deaths to 20,000. But that does not mean 480,000 lives are being saved - many will die whether or not they get the virus. Every year, about 600,000 people in the UK die. And the frail and elderly are most at risk, just as they are if they have coronavirus. Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, at the University of Cambridge, points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same. That does not mean there will be no extra deaths - but, Sir David says, there will be "a substantial overlap". "Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says. Knowing exactly how many is impossible to tell at this stage. Prof Neil Ferguson, the lead modeller at Imperial College London, has suggested it could be up to two-thirds. But while deaths without the virus would be spread over the course of a year, those with the virus could come quickly and overwhelm the health service. The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body - because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported.